Huixun summary:The dollar rose in choppy trade on Tuesday, lacking a clear direction as investors kept an eye on debt-ceiling talks to stave off a possible default. A U.S. default could affect entire asset markets and undermine confidence in the world's largest economy. Gold fell below $2,000 an ounce after U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials fueled bets that a rate cut could be delayed, while traders kept an eye on U.S. debt-ceiling talks.The data and news released the day before yesterday:Gold fell below $2,000 on Tuesday after U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials fueled bets that interest rate cuts could be delayed, while traders kept an eye on U.S. debt-ceiling talks. U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in April, but the underlying trend held firm, boosting the dollar and sending 10-year Treasury yields to two-week highs.Richmond Fed Chairman Thomas Barkin said he was "comfortable" about raising interest rates further if needed to reduce inflation. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the Fed is not yet at a point where it can keep interest rates steady for some time.It followed hawkish comments from other Fed officials on Monday who argued that rates would stay high and possibly go even higher.Crude oil fell on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected economic data offset the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast for higher global demand. Weak economic data weighed on prices on Tuesday, however, Chinese refinery throughput rose 18.9% year-on-year in April to the second-highest level on record, helping to keep crude prices underpinned.The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 bpd to a record 102 million bpd. It said China's recovery from the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions was stronger than expected, with demand hitting a record 16 million bpd in March.In another bullish event, the U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday it would buy 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in August, a move to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Crude oil inventories rose by about 3.6 million barrels in the week ended May 12, gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 886,000 barrels.The dollar rose in choppy trade on Tuesday, lacking a clear direction as investors kept an eye on debt-ceiling talks to stave off a possible default. A U.S. default could affect entire asset markets and undermine confidence in the world's largest economy.The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback’s value against six major currencies, was up 0.2% on the day at 102.61. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 136.315.Debt ceiling talks between Democratic President Joe Biden and top Republican in Congress McCarthy ended in less than an hour on Tuesday, as concerns over a possible unprecedented U.S. debt default prompted Biden to cut short an upcoming trip to Asia. But the meeting ended in an upbeat and unexpected way, with McCarthy saying after talks with Biden and other congressional leaders that "it's possible to get a deal by the end of the week." Both parties agree on the need for urgent action.Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments, said, "Obviously, in terms of the risk of default, it will be messy. The question is in the case of default, in a highly leveraged world, can you take U.S. Treasuries as Collateral?"Historically, the dollar has tended to rebound in times of financial stress and deleveraging as investors scramble to unwind risky bets. "But you don't want U.S. Treasuries, so it's hard to say we're going to have a dollar rally in a deleveraging scenario," Merk said. "I'd say it's hard to predict what's going to happen, other than that volatility could be intense." .”In afternoon trade, the euro slipped 0.1% to $1.0858, while sterling was down 0.4% at $1.2478.The dollar rose earlier after U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in April, but the details showed underlying trends remained firm. That suggests consumer spending is likely to remain strong early in the second quarter.Retail sales rose 0.4% last month. Data for March was slightly revised to show sales falling 0.7% instead of the previously reported 0.6%.In line with the generally upbeat economic picture, industrial production jumped 1% in April, handily beating expectations for a flat reading and slightly higher than March's revised 0.8% gain.The reports suggest that while the Fed is widely expected to pause rate hikes at its next meeting, higher borrowing costs are not out of the question.Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, wrote in a research note, "While there were some mixed signals in various data reports today, on balance, most were favorable. We continue to track some upside risks to our 1.0% Q1 GDP growth forecast, and even so, given all the dark clouds on the horizon, we still think the Fed is on hold at its next meeting in mid-June."Richmond Fed Chairman Thomas Barkin doubled down on the "higher and longer" mantra on Tuesday. He said he likes the "selectivity" hinted at in the Fed's latest policy statement, but would be "happy" to raise rates further if lowering inflation requires that; a message that has been echoed by several Fed officials over the past week.U.S. dollar index technical analysis:The U.S. dollar index encountered resistance below 102.70 on Tuesday, while its decline was supported above 102.15, which means that the U.S. dollar may maintain a downward trend after a short-term rise. If the U.S. index encounters resistance below 102.80 today, the target for the future decline will be between 102.25--101.95. Today, the short-term resistance of the US index is 102.75--102.80, and the important short-term resistance is 102.95--103.00. Today, the short-term support of the US index is at 102.25--102.30, and the important short-term support is at 101.95--102.00.EUR/USD technical analysis:The decline in Europe and the United States on Tuesday was supported above 1.0855, and the rise was blocked below 1.0905, which means that Europe and the United States may maintain an upward trend after a short-term decline. If Europe and the United States fall below 1.0845 today to be supported, the target for the market outlook will be between 1.0900--1.0925. Today, the short-term resistance in Europe and the United States is at 1.0895--1.0900, and the important short-term resistance is at 1.0920--1.0925. Today, the short-term support in Europe and the United States is at 1.0845--1.0850, and the important short-term support is at 1.0825--1.0830.Gold technical analysis:Gold's decline on Tuesday was supported above 1985.00, and its rise was blocked below 2021.00, which means that gold may maintain a downward trend after a short-term rise. If gold's rise today encounters resistance below 2013.00, the target for the future market decline will be between 1977.00--1963.00. The short-term resistance of gold today is 1999.00--2000.00, and the important short-term resistance is 2012.00--2013.00. The short-term support of gold today is 1985.00--1986.00, and the important short-term support is 1977.00--1978.00.Market volatility:European stock markets closed: Germany’s DAX30 index closed down 14.99 points, or 0.09%, at 15902.25 points on May 16 (Tuesday);On May 16 (Tuesday), the British FTSE 100 index closed down 26.82 points, or 0.34%, to 7750.88 points;The French CAC40 index closed down 12.20 points, or 0.16%, to 7406.01 points on May 16 (Tuesday);The European Stoxx 50 Index closed down 1.56 points, or 0.04%, at 4314.85 points on May 16 (Tuesday);Spain's IBEX35 index closed down 8.01 points, or 0.09%, at 9193.49 points on May 16 (Tuesday);Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 34.46 points, or 0.13%, to 27211.00 points on May 16 (Tuesday).U.S. stock market closing: The Dow Jones Index closed down 336.26 points, or 1.01%, at 33012.34 points on May 16 (Tuesday);The S&P 500 index closed down 25.98 points, or 0.63%, at 4110.30 points on May 16 (Tuesday);On May 16 (Tuesday), the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 22.16 points, or 0.18%, to 12343.05 points.Major commodities close: U.S. gold futures settled at $1,993, down 1.5%. Brent crude futures settled down 32 cents at $74.91 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 25 cents to $70.86.CWG outlook forecast:The short-term of the US dollar today is mainly short-selling on rallies, breaking positions to stop losses, setting a stop-profit if there is a profit of more than 30 points, and withdrawing all pending orders that have not been traded before the US market opens. This strategy is suitable for margin, and the firm offer can be used as a reference.U.S. dollar index: You can sell at the upper limit of the range of 102.80--102.00, effectively break the position by 20 points and stop loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the range.EUR/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 1.0925---1.0845, effectively break 30 points of stop loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the range.GBP/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 1.2580---1.2450, effectively break the position by 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the range.USD/CHF: You can sell at the upper limit of the range of 0.8980---0.8900, effectively break the position by 30 points and stop the loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the range.USD/JPY: It can be sold at the upper limit of the range of 136.80--135.20, effectively breaking through 40 points of stop loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the range.AUD/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 0.6695---0.6635, effectively break