CWG Markets: "Investors turned to the safe-ha
  Source:CWG Markets 2023-05-17 11:51:46
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Huixun summary:The dollar rose against the euro and sterling on Friday, posting its biggest weekly gain since February, as investors turned to the safe-haven greenback after consumer confidence data stoked concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy; gold hit its lowest in a week, It also fell for the week, weighed down by a rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.This week focuses on the final outcome of the U.S. debt ceiling issue and the speeches of several Fed officials; the G7 leaders meeting will be held from May 19th to 21st, and U.S. President Joe Biden will attend. In addition, focus on the RBA resolution and the IEA monthly report.The data and news released the day before yesterday:Gold prices hit their lowest in a week on Friday and also fell for the week, weighed down by a rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar hit a one-month high and posted its biggest weekly gain since September, making gold less attractive to buyers of other currencies. The rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields further weakened the appeal of non-yielding gold. However, given the lingering debt ceiling issues we will see in the coming weeks, the upside for a stronger dollar is limited, and if this persists, gold will benefit.U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the exact date for when the Treasury Department will run out of cash to service U.S. debt remains uncertain, but she would keep Congress updated on changes to that date, which could be as early as June 1 day.Spot silver was down 0.9 percent at $23.95 an ounce, down more than 6 percent for the week, its worst week in seven months. Platinum fell 3.5% to $1,054.93 and palladium fell 2.5% to $1,511.90.Oil prices ended more than 1 percent lower on Friday, posting their third straight weekly loss, as the market weighed supply concerns against renewed economic concerns about the United States. The dollar held on to modest gains against the euro on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly gain since February, as uncertainty over the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy prompted a flight to safety.Fears of a recession in the world's largest oil consumer grew, with talks on a debt ceiling delayed and worries intensified about another crisis-hit regional bank.The number of active U.S. oil and gas rigs fell to the lowest in nearly a year last week, with the weekly decline in natural gas rigs the largest since February 2016, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a closely watched report on Friday.The market has drawn some support from forecasts of supply shortages in the second half of the year, although Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Ghani said Iraq does not believe OPEC+ will cut oil production further at its next meeting in June.The U.S. Department of Energy may start buying back oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a release mandated by Congress in June, the U.S. energy secretary said. This also brought some support to the market.The dollar rose against the euro and sterling on Friday, posting its biggest weekly gain since February, as investors turned to the safe-haven greenback after consumer confidence data stoked concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy.A survey by the University of Michigan on Friday showed U.S. consumer confidence slipped to a six-month low in May as they worried that political wrangling over raising the federal government's borrowing limit could trigger a recession. Consumers' long-term inflation expectations jumped this month to their highest level since 2011, bad news for the Fed, which last week signaled it may pause its fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s.Recent data showing a slowing economy has given the Fed reason to pause rate hikes at its June meeting. Earlier data showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell to 4.9% year-on-year in April. Moreover, initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week.But the labor market is still tight. In March, every unemployed person corresponds to 1.6 job vacancies, which is much higher than the range of 1.0-1.2. Only at this level will the labor market not produce too much inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains high, the Fed may need to raise interest rates further.Sterling fell 0.5% to $1.2448, while the euro fell 0.6% to $1.0851, having touched a one-month low a day earlier. The dollar index rose 0.6 percent to 102.69 and was up 1.4 percent for the week, its biggest weekly gain since February.Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera, noted that still-high U.S. inflation has raised some doubts about the Federal Reserve's year-end rate cuts, and the view that other central banks may also be closer to pausing rate hikes has also weighed on European currencies.Manimbo wrote: "Last week's dollar rally was driven by multiple factors. The dollar has become a safe haven amid concerns about China's economic weakness and Wall Street volatility. Although stronger, it is too early to tell whether the dollar's weakness has reversed. .The market needs to withdraw rate cut expectations to give the dollar meaningful upward momentum.”Futures traders expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in June, with rates falling later in the year. The Fed's current benchmark interest rate range is 5%-5.25%, rising rapidly from near zero in March 2022.U.S. dollar index technical analysis:The rise of the U.S. dollar index last Friday was blocked below 102.75, and the fall was supported above 101.90, which means that the dollar may maintain an upward trend after a short-term decline. If the U.S. index falls above 102.15 today and is supported, the target for the market outlook will be between 102.95 and 103.25. Today, the short-term resistance of the US index is 102.90--102.95, and the important short-term resistance is 103.20--103.25. Today, the short-term support of the US index is 102.40--102.45, and the important short-term support is 102.15--102.20.EUR/USD technical analysis:The fall in Europe and the United States last Friday was supported above 1.0845, and the rise was blocked below 1.0940, which means that Europe and the United States may maintain a downward trend after a short-term rise. If the rise in Europe and the United States is blocked below 1.0910 today, the target for the market outlook will be between 1.0820--1.0790. Today, the short-term resistance in Europe and the United States is at 1.0880--1.0885, and the important short-term resistance is at 1.0905--1.0910. Today, the short-term support in Europe and the United States is at 1.0820--1.0825, and the important short-term support is at 1.0790--1.0795.Gold technical analysis:Gold’s fall last Friday was supported above 2000.00, and its rise was blocked below 2023.00, which means that gold may maintain a downward trend after a short-term rise. If gold's rise today encounters resistance below 2024.00, the target for future declines will be between 2002.00--1991.00. Today, the short-term resistance of gold is 2024.00--2025.00, and the short-term important resistance is 2033.00--2034.00. The short-term support of gold today is 2002.00--2003.00, and the important short-term support is 1991.00--1992.00.Market volatility:European stock markets closed: Germany’s DAX30 index closed up 81.34 points, or 0.51%, at 15916.25 points on May 12 (Friday);On May 12 (Friday), the British FTSE 100 index closed up 24.52 points, or 0.32%, to 7755.10 points;The French CAC40 index closed up 33.07 points, or 0.45%, at 7414.85 points on May 12 (Friday);The European Stoxx 50 Index closed up 8.30 points, or 0.19%, at 4318.05 points on May 12 (Friday);The Spanish IBEX35 index closed up 53.51 points, or 0.58%, at 9236.31 points on May 12 (Friday);Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 255.11 points, or 0.94%, at 27354.00 points on May 12 (Friday).U.S. stock market closing: The Dow Jones Index closed down 8.89 points, or 0.03%, at 33300.62 points on May 12 (Friday);On May 12 (Friday), the S&P 500 index closed down 6.04 points, or 0.15%, to 4124.58 points;On May 12 (Friday), the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 43.76 points, or 0.35%, to 12284.74 points.Major commodities closed: U.S. gold futures settled at $2019.80, little changed. Brent crude futures settled down 1.1 percent at $74.17; U.S. crude futures fell 1.2 percent to $70.04.CWG outlook forecast:In the short-term of the US dollar today, it is mainly to go long on dips, break the position to stop the loss, set a stop profit if there is a profit of more than 30 points, and withdraw all pending orders that have not been traded before the US market opens. This strategy is suitable for margin, and the firm offer can be used as a reference.U.S. dollar index: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 102.95---102.20, effectively break the position by 30 points and stop the loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the range.EUR/USD: You can sell at the upper limit of the range of 1.0910 --- 1.0820, effectively break the 40-point stop loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the range.GBP/USD: You can sell at the upper limit of the range of 1.2510--1.2415, effectively break the position by 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the range.USD/CHF: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 0.9015---0.8920, effectively break 40 points to stop loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the range.USD/JPY: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 136.20--134.80, effectively break the position by 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the range.AUD/USD: You can sell at the upper limit of the range of 0.6690---0.6615, effectively breaking the position by 40 points to stop loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the range.USD/CAD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range of 1.3595---1.3505, effectively break 40 point