OANDA: The week ahead - Turkey heads to the polls
  Source:OANDA 2023-05-16 13:21:54
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usWall Street will continue to focus on debt ceiling drama, excessive Fed speeches, retail earnings and bank stress. It will be a busy week of economic data, with most of the attention focused on the Empire State manufacturing survey, which is expected to show a rebound in spending, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales.Debt ceiling talks were delayed and are expected to resume this week. The risk of default is rising, which would be catastrophic for the economy.Given the slack and deflationary trends emerging in the labor market, the Fed may be persuaded to keep rates on hold for a little longer than most assume. There are 9 Fed meetings this week, with the focus coming from Bostic on Monday, Goolsbee on Tuesday, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell joins former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke on a panel on Friday.euro areaThere will be a lot of economic data coming out next week, but I'm not sure if it really falls into the first category, although some might. HICP is obviously a huge release, but revisions are often marginal at best. It's unlikely to be a game-changer, but never say never. Flash figures for gross domestic product will also attract attention, as growth was largely flat last year. Will there be a recession? Beyond that, it's all about ECB speeches, especially President Lagarde's speeches on Tuesday and Friday.U.K The BoE remains confident that inflation will return to target within the forecast range, but the new staff forecasts underscore how challenging this will be. Both inflation and economic growth have been revised up sharply this year, and Tuesday's labor market data may help explain why. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8% and wage growth (excluding bonuses) at 6.8%.Both are inconsistent with inflation falling to 2%, but at the same time, they are unlikely to stay there for long. Inflation is expected to fall sharply starting in April and interest rates will remain under pressure. Next week we'll be hearing from various BoE policymakers including Governor Bailey, but I don't expect to hear anything different from Thursday's press conference following the rate decision.RussiaWith GDP data next week and an appearance by central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina in focus, traders are looking for clues on when the next policy move might happen and in which direction.South AfricaThe calendar looks a bit thin again next week, with the unemployment rate and retail sales the only releases. The former was 32.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and is expected to be higher at 33.2% in the first quarter, while retail sales slipped 0.5% in February but are expected to rebound 2.8% in March.TürkiyeThis weekend's election has been discussed for months and could have a major impact on Turkish markets. The monetary policy experiments of the past few years are arguably geared toward this weekend's elections, a gamble that President Erdogan hopes will help extend his two-decade reign.The presidential race will need one candidate - Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu - to get more than 50 percent of the vote, or it will go to the second round on May 28. Voting opens at 8:00 a.m. local time on Sunday, with polls closing at 5:00 p.m. local time. By the time the markets open next week, we may find out who won the presidential election.SwitzerlandThe PPI data is the only noteworthy event next week, but traders will be watching for signs of fading price pressures, with the SNB so far showing zero tolerance for above-target inflation.ChinaA recent string of disappointing economic data, covering both external and domestic demand, has raised expectations for China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, to cut interest rates to address the current slump. The tentative date for an upcoming decision on the rate on the one-year medium-term lending facility has been set for Monday, May 15.Next up on the busy schedule is another key set of data releases; on Tuesday, May 16, we will release April Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate and Year-to-Date Fixed Asset Investment. Retail sales will be in focus as policymakers voice concerns about recent weakness in domestic demand. The market generally believes that the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales has further rebounded to 20.1% from 10.6% in March.Housing data will be in focus on Wednesday, with the house price index expected to improve further to -0.2% in April from -0.8% in March. If the outcome is as predicted, it will be the 3rd consecutive month of improvement in the Chinese property market.On the earnings front, China's big tech companies released a series of data; Baidu on Tuesday 16th May, Tencent Holdings on Wednesday 17th May and Alibaba Group on Thursday 18th May.IndiaThe trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to $21.5 billion in April from $19.7 billion in March amid a subdued global demand environment.On Wednesday, wholesale inflation is expected to decelerate further, from 1.34% in March to negative -0.2% y/y in April. If the results are as expected, it will mark an 11 thousand consecutive month of contraction.Australiabusy week. First, we have Westpac's consumer sentiment data for May on Monday, with the consensus forecast for a -1.7% month-on-month decline on the back of a surprise rate hike from the RBA.On Tuesday, market participants will have the opportunity to scrutinize the minutes of the recent RBA monetary policy decision to gain further insight into the reasons behind the surprise rate hike and predict the RBA's thought process and future actions.On Thursday, April employment data is due and hiring is expected to slow, rising by 25K from 53K in March. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.5% in April, near a 50-year low.new ZealandThe key data to watch will be the trade balance for April due on Friday, with forecasts expecting a surplus of NZ$200 million in April, compared with a deficit of NZ$1.273 billion in March. If it turns out as forecast, it will be the first monthly surplus since May 2022.JapanA busy week has been filled with key inflation data that could offer clues to how quickly the Bank of Japan will normalize its ultra-loose monetary policy expected to take shape in the second half of 2023.On Monday, year-over-year producer price growth was expected to slow to 6.5% in April from 7.2% in March. Next, first-quarter GDP will be released on Wednesday, and the consensus is that the annualized growth rate will improve to 0.7% from 0.1% in the previous quarter.The April trade balance, due on Thursday, is expected to have narrowed to 690 billion yen from 754.5 billion yen.The all-important consumer inflation rate for April is due on Friday, with core inflation expected to rise to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% in March, and core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) expected to rise from 3.8% in March. % accelerated to 3.9%, near a 30-year high.SingaporeThe key data to watch will be non-oil domestic exports for April due on Wednesday. The consensus view is that the growth rate will deteriorate further to -9.7% YoY from -8.3% in March. If the outcome is as expected, it will be a 7K month-on-month contraction in non-oil domestic exports amid a weaker external environment.