FOREX.com· Gain Group [Today\'s focus] : The stron
  Source:FOREX.com 2023-05-16 12:03:05
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Overnight market actionEconomic data· The Michigan Consumer confidence index in May was 57.7, well below expectations and previous values· UK GDP grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, but unexpectedly contracted 0.3% in MarchMarket dynamicsPoor economic data, a looming banking crisis and the looming US debt ceiling have caused stocks to lose momentum. The Dow and S&P 500 fell for a second straight week, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.6%. The consolation is that of the S&P companies that have reported earnings, 78% have come in better than expected, which is above the average over the past five and 10 years.In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index rose above 102 after a strong two-day rally, marking its biggest weekly gain since September last year.The University of Michigan's inflation expectations over the next five years climbed to a 12-year high of 3.2 percent, leading to a slight increase in the probability of a June rate hike to 15 percent and cooling bets on a rate cut by the end of the year. The dollar appears to have broken out of its long-lingering bottom area in technical form, with the possibility of a further rally this week but stiff resistance from the top.University of Michigan 1 - and 5-year inflation expectationsAmong non-US currencies, commodities such as the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar fell the most, while the Japanese yen fell "only" 0.66%. Hawkish voices, such as the euro and the pound, that defied their central banks, have come off their highs.Commodities were rout across the board last week, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook. WTI crude oil prices fell for four consecutive weeks to reach the $70 mark again. Saudi Aramco cut its official price for exports to Asia in June. Silver fell 6 percent for the week, copper fell 4.3 percent, and gold ended slightly lower near 2010.Highlights of the weekUs retail sales, German ZEW economic sentiment index, Japanese GDP and CPI, Australian unemployment rate, Chinese economic data, Walmart earnings, Powell and other Fed officials speech, US debt ceiling negotiationsThe euro peaked around 1.1100 and retraced to the uptrend line since September. With signs of a rebound in the dollar index and poor Chinese data, this support may be difficult to hold. This week to focus on the downside risk of euro volatility, the primary support can refer to 1.0760, which is also near the 100-day average line, if you can stick to the line is expected to maintain the upward momentum and once again hit the former high 1.1100 line.Gold prices came under pressure last week from a pullback that began at an all-time high of 2080, continuing to correct the overbought RSI indicator.If gold falls through the upward channel this week, watch for the 1960/76 area to be an effective buffer, followed by support around 1945, which is the 50 percent retracement of the rally that began in late February. The direction of the rebound, 2050 is the obvious important target, here is the 2022 and 2023 two all-time high pullback starting point.The implied volatility of gold for the week is 14.4%, slightly lower than last week, suggesting a potential range of 1969.36 to 2051.18 for the week, which is basically in line with the above technical analysis levels.The expectations for crude oil in the European and U.S. trading outlook on Friday are still valid: the rally in WTI crude oil was blocked near 73.60 (trend line and Fibonacci retracement), and has since resumed its decline, or once again below the 67 line.