Q: What about U.S. commercial real estate bonds?AA: Loan delinquencies and Special Servicing rates for CMBS (commercial real estate mortgage-backed securities) have both increased since the beginning of the year, highlighting potential risks in the commercial real estate sector, especially in properties such as retail and office buildings. But the CMBS market is small, accounting for just 13% of total commercial real estate debt, and is typically sold to third parties rather than remaining on banks' balance sheets.The real concern is the US banks' $2.25 trillion in commercial real estate loans, of which small and medium-sized banks (outside the top 25) collectively hold 80%, or 20% of their total assets, and nearly 50% for smaller banks. By contrast, the top25's exposure is just 4 per cent.If the real economy fails to support commercial real estate, it could be the next trigger for a banking crisis.QQ: I see that in 2011, the Fed had about six months or so between a pause in interest rate hikes and a cut in interest rates. May I ask, "from the suspension of interest rate hike to the interest rate cut before this buffer period", what do you think?AA: The market continues to anticipate, bet on and correct when rates will be cut. The Fed also adjusts its forward guidance based on economic data. If the two diverge significantly, the market could experience wide volatility.However, the current data in the interest rate market suggest that this transition period may only last 2-3 months this year.QQ: From the trend of gold's monthly K line, can it be seen as "O 'Neal's cup handle shape"?AA: It can not be said that the cup handle shape is very standard, especially the "handle" part of the retraction is slightly larger. However, this does not prevent us from reference, nor does it change the long-term bullish case for gold. In theory, the distance from the bottom of the cup to the right peak is the potential upside of gold in the future.QQ: With gold going so well now, do precious metals companies have better opportunities than tech stocks?AA: To compare the Gold stock ETF with the tech giants, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX, blue line) is up 19% this year, slightly lower than the Nasdaq 100's 22% (yellow) and Apple's 40% (brown), and significantly lower than Meta's 88% (green).QQ: Will crude oil hit new lows?AA: The possibility is always there, but a double bottom near $65 suggests that oil may not be able to get out of lower lows any time soon. However, because the economic outlook has not improved and the long-term weak trend has not changed, the rebound direction still needs to pay attention to the opportunity to short the rally.