FXCM · FXCM: Market sentiment is cautious and Chin
  Source:FXCM 2023-05-16 11:46:58
Description:
USD/CNY rebounded, interrupting this week's pullback from two-month highs.China's industrial production and retail sales are still lower than market expectations, while still lower than the previous value.The market remains anxious ahead of key data/events, with the dollar interrupting its retreat from five-week highs.US retail sales, debt ceiling talks were seen as catalysts to clarify market direction.USD/CNH rose to around 6.9690 early on Tuesday, interrupting a pullback from a two-month high the day before, with major Chinese data failing to attract bulls. Likely to boost USD/CNH bulls Market sentiment is mixed and USD pullback paused.The annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in China in April increased by 5.6%, expected 10.9%, and the previous value was 3.9%, while the annual rate of retail sales was 18.4%, the previous value was 10.6%, and the expected value was 21.0%.Also read: China's April retail sales rose 18.4% on an annualized basis, and China's industrial added value above designated size rose 5.6% on an annualized basis in AprilAside from Chinese economic data, USD/CNH was also affected by a mixed report from the People's Bank of China the day before. That said, the PBOC reports were mixed, supporting USD/CNH upside. That said, the latest news shows that the People's Bank of China left the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate unchanged at 2.75%. In addition, the People's Bank of China also issued a quarterly report on China's economy, saying that China's economy is not experiencing deflation, and economic growth will pick up sharply.Elsewhere, the White House announced a meeting between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to address a U.S. debt default. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. policymakers appeared optimistic about extending the debt ceiling ahead of the debt's maturity in June.However, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy's latest remarks, saying he "doesn't think the economy is in a favorable environment," also seemed to weigh on sentiment amid fears of a stalemate over the U.S. debt ceiling extension as Republicans may stick to what they have seen.In this environment, even though U.S. stocks closed higher and S&P 500 futures fell modestly, U.S. bond yields remained under pressure, thus indicating that the market direction is unclear and is waiting for important data/events to clarify the direction.As such, talks between US policymakers to avoid a US default and US April retail sales will be in focus today for clarity on market direction. Should U.S. policymakers surprise the market positively, the prospect of witnessing a fall in the dollar cannot be ruled out. At the same time, U.S. retail sales in April are also not optimistic, with an expected monthly rate of 0.7% and the previous value of -0.6%.technical analysisUSD/CNH is testing the bears with a bearish six-week rising wedge pattern and the relative strength indicator (14) is close to overbought. However, a clear break of the 6.9360 support in USD/CNH is necessary for the bears to take over.