Steel: The national average price of 20mm grade III threaded steel is 3845/ton (+30); The national average price of 4.75mmQ235 hot coil is 3941/ton (+36), and Tangshan ordinary square billet is 3480/ton (+10). On the supply side, there has been a significant reduction in thread production and a small reduction in hot coil production. The inventory of threads in steel mills is at a high level in the past five years, and the hot coil is neutral. The social inventory of threads is slowing down and decreasing, and the hot coil turning head is upward. Next week, the steel plant is expected to continue to focus on reducing production (excluding the impact of holiday shutdowns); Cost side: The inventory of iron ore and steel mills has significantly decreased, and the arrival volume has decreased. The level of port inventory is neutral and low, with a focus on depolarization.

Due to the steel factory's urgent need for restocking, the low spot price is supported; The supply of coking coal is sufficient, with a profit of about 100 yuan in Shanxi. Some coking plants in Hebei are still in a loss range, and the overall level is on the edge of breakeven; On the demand side: Real estate has entered the off-season, with a positive sales growth rate, sluggish land acquisition, and poor performance in completion rate, operating rate, and construction rate; The infrastructure investment is good, but it still takes time to implement the physical workload; The performance of manufacturing cars has rebounded, the growth rate of household appliances has decreased, overdraft consumption, and multiple companies' price reduction sales strategies have led to a strong wait-and-see mentality among the public, and the impact is expected to continue to ferment; The export level is expected to remain stable at a high level. We believe that from an industry perspective, the supply side has seen an increase in favorable factors, while the demand side has still not improved; The expected end of the US interest rate hike cycle may drive a rebound in global commodity prices, but there is no significant rebound factor in China's current economic development trend; Overall, the fundamentals suggest that supply and demand have further weakened, with a slightly loose balance; From a spot perspective, the transaction of building materials is relatively poor (steel mills have reduced prices more), and the transaction of industrial materials has decreased (operating in off-season); From a financial perspective, the holding capacity has slightly decreased, and the long short game has weakened, but speculation may increase significantly as the early bottom approaches. Strategically speaking, focus on 10-1 sets.

Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB Australian flour plate in Rizhao Port is 798 yuan/wet ton (855 yuan/ton of folded flour), while the price of 60.8% Macflour plate in Rizhao Port is 854 yuan/ton (+19). Recently, the continuous decline in iron ore prices has led to weak market transactions, but under the bottom hunting mentality, inquiries for forward and low prices have increased.

The steel factory has once again taken the initiative to reduce inventory, and the strategy remains to purchase according to demand; The basis difference of PB powder has significantly increased, while the basis difference of high-quality block ore has decreased. In terms of imports: The shipment of mainstream minerals from Australia to Pakistan is greatly affected by seasonal factors, while transactions of non mainstream minerals have significantly declined, and domestic mineral sales have remained stable; It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will maintain a relatively low level in the near future, the dredging volume will be relatively stable, and the port inventory will continue to be slightly depleted. The price difference between PB powder and ultra fine powder has increased significantly, while the price difference between card powder and PB powder has decreased significantly. The cost-effectiveness of high-quality ore has improved, and the steel plant's furnace structure is inclined towards powder ore. We believe that the current reduction in production by steel mills has further reduced demand levels, but actively reducing inventory will inevitably lead to an increase in just needed restocking. In addition, the recent low ore prices have increased the willingness of steel mills to trade at low prices.

Therefore, the fundamentals of iron ore have slightly improved, with strong bottom support. However, currently the black market is still dominated by downstream consumption, and steel prices may still have downward space in the off-season (combined with May Day consumption stimulus that is less than expected). There is significant pressure above iron ore. Coal coke: The CFR price of imported Australian Jingfeng coking coal increased by 2.7 US dollars to 254 US dollars per ton, driven by Indian procurement to stabilize Australian coal. The CFR price of coking coal produced in the United States has decreased by $49 to $255 per ton, while the CFR price of coking coal produced in Canada has decreased by $72 to $253 per ton. The price of K4 main coking coal in Russia remains at 1580 yuan/ton. The low sulfur main coke site in Shaheyi has maintained a self raised price of 1780 yuan/ton, while the main coke coal delivery price at Mandula Port has been reduced by 50 yuan to 1100 yuan/ton. Domestically, the ex factory spot exchange price of Liulin S1.3 main coking coal has been reduced by 70 yuan to 1390 yuan/ton. Today, the price of car transportation from Xiaoyi to Rizhao rose to 210 yuan, and the ocean coal freight index OCFI closed at 631.77 points, a decrease of 3.43% month on month. In terms of coke, the outbound price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke at Qingdao Port and Rizhao Port remains at 2030 yuan/ton, and the foreign trade price remains at 320 US dollars/ton. Downstream finished product prices have slightly increased, and market transactions have improved. The rhythm of coke lifting and lowering is slowing down.

On May 8th, Double Focus futures continued to rise significantly, with an increase of over 6%. Coking coal closed at 1412.5 and coke closed at 2140.5. The rebound of the black series futures market on the same day was mainly influenced by two rumors, including the reduction of crude steel production and import restrictions on Mongolian coal. Currently, the above rumors have been basically proven to be unfounded. But the market also reflects that the oversold in the early stage may have reached the psychological low point in the market, and most short orders have left the market with gains. In the short term, beware of a pullback, and it is expected that the bifocal fluctuations will slow down within the week.

Glass: 309 fluctuated and fell, closing at 1730 (-25) yuan/ton with a holding of 1.138 million (+2214) yuan. In terms of spot goods, the 5mm white glass board in Shahe region is 2143 (+51) yuan/ton, the 6mm white glass board is 2119 (+36) yuan/ton, and the 5mm white glass board in Hubei region is 2200 (0) yuan/ton. The trading volume in North China is average. Sporadic price increases; The transaction in the East China market is stable and the sales are average; Mainly purchasing on demand in the middle and lower reaches of the Central China market, with average production and sales; The stability of prices in the South China market is mainly a wait-and-see approach, and overall production and sales are average; Cost side: The delivery situation of soda ash manufacturers is poor. Recently, the manufacturer's load has decreased, and most factories are flexible in taking orders and shipping. Currently, the manufacturer's inventory is relatively low, with a small accumulation of inventory. The spot price still shows a downward trend in the near future. Last week, due to the impact of the holiday, inventory slowly increased, and manufacturers' upward sentiment subsided. Subsequently, the cold repair production line gradually ignited, and the concentrated completion of real estate guarantee buildings continued to release demand. However, from the perspective of glass transactions, it has weakened. Pay attention to the completion data of real estate in April, and it is expected that glass vibration will be the main trend in the short term.