Stock index: All four broad base indices in the stock market rose, with the overall market gaining relatively more. The banking and coal sectors saw the largest gains, while the food and beverage and consumer service sectors saw the largest declines. IF2305 closed at 4038, up 1%; IH2305 closed at 2720.6, up 1.26%; IC2305 closed at 6229.4, up 0.53%, while IM2305 closed at 6687.8, up 0.57%. The IF2305 basis is 4.66, up 5.58, the IH2305 basis is -0.28, up 1.35, the IC2305 basis is 19.18, up 15, the IM2305 basis is 14.7, up 11.05, and the changes in the basis of the four major stock indices are consistent. The IC/IH is 2.29 (-0.016). The transaction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 1139.4 billion yuan (+657). The net inflow of northbound funds today is 2 billion yuan (+14). As of May 5th, the balance of the two financial institutions was 1612.6 billion yuan (-49). DR007 is 1.7955 (+7.49), FR007 is 2 (+25BP). The yield of the ten-year treasury bond was 2.744 (+1.4BP), the yield of the ten-year US bond was 3.52% (+8BP), and the interest rate difference between China and the United States was -0.776%. The strong US non farm data in April lowered the expectation of interest rate cut, focusing on the US inflation data released this week and the risk of US debt default. The slope of domestic economic recovery is slowing down, and the internal vitality is not strong, which is currently reflected in high-frequency data. There is still room for further restoration of the fundamentals, and we will pay attention to changes in the policy and demand sides in the future. It is expected that the A-share market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, operate cautiously, and pay attention to stopping gains and losses. Key news: Wholesale sales in the United States decreased by 2.1% month on month in March, marking the largest decline since April 2020. It is expected to increase by 0.4% compared to the previous value.

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 76.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 23.4%; The probability of maintaining interest rates at the current level by July is 54.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point reduction is 32.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 13.6%.

Precious Metals: The US non farm data in April showed strong performance, and wage growth remained resilient, reducing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but not changing the mainstream expectation of not raising interest rates in June. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell, reducing the risk of a hard landing for the US economy. Global gold demand decreased in the first quarter, but global central bank demand for gold increased. In the short term, precious metals may experience a correction in volatility, but the trend of upward trend remains unchanged. Focus on the US inflation data released this week and the risk of US debt default. You can enter on dips, operate cautiously, and pay attention to stopping gains and losses.

Treasury bond: The central bank has released a net investment of 2 billion yuan today, with loose funds. Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, the 10-year main contract down 0.17%, the five-year main contract down 0.09%, and the two-year main contract down 0.02%. The strong trend of the stock market and commodities has also dampened sentiment in the bond market. The yield of ten-year treasury bond is 2.7436% (+1.35BP), the yield of ten-year US bonds is 3.52% (+8BP), and the interest rate difference between China and the United States is -0.7764% (-6.65BP). The yield of US bonds has increased, the upside down of the US US interest rate difference has slightly widened, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has decreased, and the appreciation of the RMB has been beneficial for long-term bonds. It is recommended to take a more volatile approach. Today's focus: China's April social financing scale increase, China's April M0 money supply year-on-year, China's April M1 money supply year-on-year, China's April M2 money supply year-on-year, and China's April import and export year-on-year.