1、 Fundamentals:

Yesterday evening, the US released data showing that the US PPI fell 0.1% month on month (MOM) in February, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.7%; The year-on-year growth was 4.6%, which was significantly slower than the 6% of the previous month, which was the lowest year-on-year growth since March 2021. As the PPI data is lower than expected, it is expected that the Federal Reserve may consider slowing down the pace of interest rate hike. Meanwhile, retail sales in the United States in February were -0.4% month on month, basically in line with market expectations, down sharply from 3% of the previous value, the lowest growth rate since December 2020. As the aftermath of Silicon Valley banks expanded, retail data showed that the U.S. economy continued to cool, which continued to heat up the expectation that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in March. This will benefit gold in the short term.

After the collapse of the Bank of America, the share price of Credit Suisse in Europe plunged 30% to a record low yesterday, and the largest shareholder of Credit Suisse, Saudi Arabia National Bank, said it would not invest again, detonating the European and American banking crisis again. At the same time, the liquidity of U.S. bonds has deteriorated sharply, and the U.S. interest rate futures market has experienced a rare circuit breaker. The liquidity depletion of the bond market seems to be just a sign of a larger crisis. The market lowered the expectation of raising interest rates again, and whether the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week is in suspense. Gold triggered a unilateral rise in short-term risk aversion.

2、 Technical aspects:

Gold (xauusd):

From the 1H trend chart of gold in the above figure, the price of gold rose rapidly after rebounding from the bottom line of 1808. However, the price peaked at around 1937 last night and began to fall after being under pressure. At present, the rising rhythm of gold has not changed, and short-term bargain hunting can continue. The MACD indicator shows that the double line is above the zero axis, showing a dead cross down, indicating that the market is falling. Within the day, you can pay attention to the important support near 1894 below, and you can try multiple orders with light positions.

Intra day trading strategy:

Multiple orders: it is recommended to try to be long near 1894.0, stop at 1889.0, and target around 1900.0-1920.0.

Silver (xagusd):

From the 1H cycle chart of silver in the above figure, after silver stabilized and rebounded from around 19.90, silver prices rose continuously, and the overall trend was strong; From the perspective of morphology, after the price broke through the high point near 21.30 in the early stage, the market gradually stepped out of the U-shaped bullish reversal pattern. At present, the price is above the neck line, which does not destroy the rising pattern, and the short-term bullish can continue. The MACD indicator shows that the double line is above the zero axis, showing a dead cross down, indicating that the market is falling. You can pay attention to the important support near 21.50 below during the day, and you can try multiple orders with light positions.

Intra day trading strategy:

Multiple orders: it is recommended to try to long near 21.50, stop at 21.30, and target near 21.80-22.10.

[the above opinions and suggestions are for reference only and do not represent the position of the company. Therefore, the trading risk should be borne by the investor. It is suggested that investors should maintain an optimistic and cautious attitude and make specific analysis and response according to the specific situation.]

3、 Message side:

1. 19:00 briefing on the UK budget by the UK budget responsibility Office

2. 20:30 Canada January wholesale sales monthly rate

3. 20:30 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States to March 11

4. 20:30 annualisation of the total number of new housing starts in the United States in February

5. 20:30 total number of construction permits in the United States in February

6. 20:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index in March

7. 20:30 monthly rate of us February import price index

8. 20:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index in March

9. 21:15 the European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision

10. 21:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde held a press conference