1、 Fundamentals:

As of March 15th, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet for the week saw its first significant increase since the current interest rate hike cycle. That week, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet increased by approximately $300 billion, and with the further intensification of banking risks, the Fed's "expansion" once again boosted gold prices to new highs. The main trigger for the expansion of the table is the banking crisis, in response to the worsening of bank failures and to prevent a series of negative cycles. The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan, rescued the market and released more liquidity.

Last Friday, the monthly industrial output rate data for February in the United States was released, which showed 0%, lower than the expected 0.2%. After the data was released, the previous value was revised to 0.3%. This is the first year-on-year decline in two years since February 2021, and manufacturing output, which unexpectedly increased month on month, actually decreased by 1% year-on-year. Combined with the overall low utilization rate of factory capacity, it indicates that the hawkish monetary policy of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has had a negative impact on the economic sector.

Last Friday's Federal Reserve data showed that US manufacturing output unexpectedly increased by 0.1% month on month in February. The expected decrease was 0.3% month on month, and the month on month growth rate before January was revised up from 1% to 1.3%. The production of US factories has increased for two consecutive months since the beginning of this year, indicating that the manufacturing industry has to some extent reversed the sluggish situation of the past year during the period of rising economic uncertainty. The uncertainty risks brought by interest rate hikes are gradually increasing, as well as the exposure of banks and the instability of economic data. The market's expectations for future interest rate hikes have plummeted. The Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution will be announced early on Thursday, Beijing time, and we will closely monitor the opportunities brought by the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy trends to the market.

2、 Technical aspect:

Gold (XAUUSD):

From the 1H cycle chart of gold, it can be seen that on Friday, it once again hit a new high for this year. From the perspective of moving average ranking, MA21 and MA60 still maintain a bullish ranking, and the momentum of MACD has once again amplified without a signal of top deviation, indicating that gold prices still have expectations for new highs; Based on the 4-hour cycle, the moving average also shows a bullish trend, with the MACD momentum column continuously increasing. However, the KD index has entered a severely overbought range, and the deviation rate between the K-line and the moving average is far away. There is a need to adjust the deviation rate to avoid excessive increases. However, overall, it is still a bullish trend. It is recommended to adjust before laying out multiple orders; In terms of operation, pay attention to the 1961 support level. If the pullback is near this support level, it is recommended to lay out multiple orders for the light warehouse.

Intraday trading strategy:

Multiple orders: Attempting to take a short position near 1961.0, with a stop loss of 1955.0 and targets around 1984.0 and 1999.0.

Silver (XAGUSD):

From the 1H cycle chart of silver, the intensity of the upward trend is not as strong as that of gold, but it also shows a bullish trend with the center moving upwards. MA21 and MA60 have shifted from a flat position to a bullish position, and the momentum of MACD has once again amplified without a signal of top deviation, indicating that there is still a new high expectation for silver prices; Based on the 4-hour cycle, the moving average also shows a bullish ranking. However, the MACD kinetic energy column has not been amplified, and instead has a peak that deviates from expectations. The KD index has entered a severely overbought range, and the deviation rate between the K-line and the moving average is far. There is a need to adjust the deviation rate to avoid excessive increases. However, overall, the low point after breaking through is far from the high point of the previous rectangular consolidation platform, and the bullish trend has not been disrupted in the short term, Suggest adjusting before laying out multiple orders; In terms of operation, pay attention to the support level of 22.00. If it is pulled back near this support level, it is recommended to lay out multiple orders in the light warehouse.

Intraday trading strategy:

Multiple orders: Try to long in a light position around 22.00, with a stop loss of 21.80 and targets around 22.35 and 22.70.

The above opinions and suggestions are for reference only and do not represent the company's position. Therefore, trading risks are borne by investors themselves. It is recommended that investors maintain an optimistic and cautious attitude and analyze and respond to specific market conditions

3、 Message surface:

1. 15:00 German February PPI monthly rate

2. 18:00 Eurozone January quarter adjusted trade account

3. 22:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech