US dollar index ($USD)

Fundamental analysis:

On August 20th, the US dollar index briefly hit 93.73, the highest level since early November last year. However, it fell 0.1% to 93.46 in late trading, and the US dollar rose nearly 1% last week, marking its largest weekly gain in two months. The safe haven US dollar fell after hitting a nine and a half month high on Friday, as risk appetite improved and the stock market rose, leading to higher benchmark US bond yields. However, the US dollar's short-term outlook remains optimistic. As central banks around the world begin to reverse stimulus measures, there are concerns that the Delta variant virus may disrupt the global economic recovery, which overall still provides support for the US dollar.

Technical analysis:

After reaching the daily level, the US index experienced resistance from the upward trend line and turned to a close down. The RSI turned downward, and the MACD's action can continue to strengthen. The four hour high has sharply declined, with the lower part near the middle track of the Bollinger band and the opening of the Bollinger band narrowing. The action on the MACD can begin to weaken, and RSI has fallen from an overbought state. The lower part may be supported by both RSI50 and the middle track of the Bollinger band.

Gold (XAUUSD)

Fundamental analysis:

Spot gold showed little change on Friday, closing at $1781.11 per ounce, with gains suppressed by the strengthening US dollar. However, concerns about a surge in new infections leading to a global economic slowdown are increasing, providing support for safe haven gold. The current market does have two sides. According to recent comments, the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce quantitative easing, which has kept the US dollar relatively strong recently. The US dollar benefited from safe haven sentiment, hitting a nine and a half month high, making gold more expensive for other currency holders.

Technical analysis:

At the daily level, a cross star is being retracted, continuously facing dual resistance from the upper Bollinger Belt's mid orbit and RSI50, and the high point is gradually decreasing. The action under MACD can continue to weaken, but the speed is getting slower and slower, and the price is gradually approaching the lower Fibo 61.8 retreat position. From a 4-hour perspective, the overall upward trend of the oscillation has shifted to a downward adjustment. It is not ruled out that there may be a flag shaped adjustment trend before the fall breaks through. The upper part is generally suppressed by the mid track of the Bollinger belt, but at the same time, it is supported by the Fibo 50. However, overall, the lower part belongs to the minimum resistance direction. RSI is exploring the 50 axis downward, and the action on the MACD can be nearing its end.

Trading strategy:

Resistance short selling

Silver (XAGUSD)

Technical analysis:

The daily level closed slightly lower, but continued to decline after stepping back on the downward trend line. Action under MACD can be strengthened, and RSI is approaching oversold. The 4-hour level gradually drops to grind down the trend line, with the Bollinger band facing downwards. Actions under MACD can continue to strengthen, RSI is approaching an overbought position, and prices are still far from the main support level below

Trading strategy:

Resistance short selling

US crude oil (XTIUSD)

Fundamental analysis:

Oil prices fell for the seventh day in a row, the longest consecutive decline since 2019. US oil fell by more than 2%, hitting a new low of 61.82 US dollars per barrel since May 21. Because the US Federal Reserve's code reduction signal strengthened the US dollar, and the resurgence of the COVID-19 also raised doubts about demand prospects. The US dollar index rose sharply this week, which also reduced the attractiveness of US dollar denominated commodities. As crude oil prices weaken, expectations of further inventory declines in the coming months are weakening. Bank of America stated that prices may fluctuate within a range in the second half of the year, and there is little possibility of a further significant decline in inventory; According to Citigroup, the price drop may prompt OPEC+to suspend its planned production increase.

Technical analysis:

The daily level continued to decline significantly, with the main support levels below breaking through heavy support at the 200 moving average and Fibo 38.2 retracement positions. Action under the MACD can quickly strengthen, and RSI continues to decline and approaches oversold. After a rapid decline in the 4-hour level, it only experienced a slight rebound and continued to decline. The Brin band opened up significantly and ran downwards, RSI returned to an oversold state, and actions under MACD can be re strengthened

Trading strategy

High short selling

Europe and America (EURUSD)

Fundamental analysis:

The euro rose 0.21% to 1.1699 against the US dollar, while the euro climbed as its short position decreased; But not far from the nine and a half month low of 1.1665 hit overnight, the risk reversal of the euro has become even more bearish. Strategists at Societe Generale Bank in France have stated that the recent pattern of the US dollar hitting a slight new high followed by a period of turbulence will continue, and the euro/US dollar may fall to 1.16 or even lower in the coming weeks. Investor sentiment deteriorated for the third consecutive month in August due to concerns that the escalating epidemic may hinder the recovery of Europe's largest economy. It is still expected that the Federal Reserve will issue a underweight signal at the September FOMC meeting to maintain short selling of the euro against the US dollar.

Technical analysis:

The daily level closed slightly higher, recovering nearly half of the previous day's decline. Action under the MACD can be strengthened, and the bottom deviation trend is disrupted. RSI has slightly risen from a nearby oversold state. After a 4-hour overall fluctuation, a long sun pillar broke through the middle track of the forest belt, causing the opening of the forest belt to narrow. The action under MACD can begin to weaken, and RSI experienced resistance along the 50 axis, driving prices into a downward trend.

Trading strategy:

Support long

GBPUSD

Fundamental analysis:

The pound briefly hit a one month low against the US dollar, falling 0.12% in late trading to 1.3622. After the release of expected UK second quarter economic growth data, investors are looking for new catalysts for the next move of the pound. After official data shows that the UK's second quarter economic growth meets expectations, analysts expect the Bank of England not to make any adjustments to its monetary policy. But the Bank of England has stated that the country's inflation rate will exceed expectations by over 4%, and policy makers believe that some "moderate tightening" is necessary at the appropriate time to control price increases.

Technical analysis:

The daily level closed slightly lower, but there is still some distance below the previous low position. The opening of the Bollinger band has been significantly opened, and the action under MACD can be rapidly enhanced, while RSI is nearby oversold. After a 4-hour rapid unilateral decline, there is a possibility of going out of the head and shoulder shape, RSI will rise from severe oversold, and actions under MACD can begin to weaken.

Trading strategy:

Short on high

Hang Seng Index (HK50)

Technical analysis:

The daily level dropped significantly, with a significant decline during the day, but some of the decline was suppressed. Action under MACD can continue to strengthen, and RSI fell to oversold. The overall fluctuation of the 4-hour level is downward, with Brin's mouth facing downwards, RSI turning back from oversold state, and MACD's action can be basically flat.

Trading strategy:

High short selling