Today's Focus Summary

The US dollar index (has continued to remain below)

SP500 (US economy may enter a recession, pressure still exists)

Gold (the decline of the US dollar drives gold to rise)

Looking back on yesterday's market trends

On Tuesday (May 24th), the US dollar index continued to decline to 101.650 (-0.63%), and yesterday's US purchasing managers' index was lower than expected, indicating that US inflation is starting to affect the manufacturing and service industries. In addition, the US new home data was also lower than expected, as the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hike increased borrowing costs, leading to a sustained downward trend in the US dollar. Gold continued to rise to 1866 (+0.68%), as concerns about economic growth persisted and the US dollar fell, boosting demand for gold. US crude oil prices rose to 109.878 (+0.54%), with oil prices closing narrowly after Tuesday's volatile trading session, as concerns about supply constraints offset concerns about a possible recession. The US stock index closed below, with the SP500 falling to 3875 (-2.04%) and the Nasdaq falling to 11584 (-2.65%) as investors worried that raising interest rates could lead to an economic recession, putting pressure on the stock market. The cryptocurrency Bitcoin remains in the 30000 area, with a display range of 28500 to 31000.

Calendar of Important Economic Data

·New Zealand's interest rate resolution

·European Central Bank Financial Stability Assessment

·Durable goods orders in the United States

New Zealand's interest rates may announce an increase from 1.50% to 2.00%. This will lead to an increase in trade cost prices, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar. In addition, the future will also have an impact on the unemployment rate.

The European Central Bank's Financial Stability Assessment is an assessment of the state of the financial system and potential risks to financial stability. Due to the significant impact of recent events in Russia and Ukraine on Europe, this data will better reflect the situation of the European economic system.

With high inflation in the United States, durable goods orders in the United States are likely to be under pressure, and the US dollar will also be indirectly under pressure.

Trading opportunities

EURUSD

The events in Russia and Ukraine continue to heat up, bringing more uncertainty to the European economic system. Therefore, the demand for the US dollar will increase, and the euro will continue to be under pressure. With Russia's announcement of sanctions on some European natural gas companies, it has increased uncertainty in the global energy market, leading to higher inflation and putting pressure on the euro. Recently, the European Central Bank has hinted that it will raise interest rates in the near future, which has increased demand for the euro and suppressed the US dollar. However, we still believe that the euro will continue to decline.

From a technical analysis perspective, the price trend continues to break through strong support areas. In addition, the 4-hour time frame EMA (Index Moving Average) shows a strong downward trend, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) also shows a deviation, indicating that the euro may weaken against the US dollar.

GBPUSD

As inflation continues to rise in the UK, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also led to the UK walking a tightrope between inflation and recession, posing a high degree of uncertainty. Affected by the development of the manufacturing industry, retail sales data has also shown a slowdown. In addition, Bailey expressed concerns about the future economic situation in England, which has put pressure on the pound. Due to yesterday's lower than expected UK PMI, the US dollar continued to weaken and prices began to fluctuate in the range.

From a technical analysis perspective, the price trend is strongly supported by a breakthrough. In addition, the EMA (Index Moving Average) within the 4-hour time range also shows a strong downward trend. Therefore, we believe that the pound will continue to be under pressure against the US dollar.

USDJPY

Due to Japan's continued negative interest rates and monetary easing policies, the aim is to push inflation up to 2%. The distance from the target is still far, causing the yen to continue to decline, while the United States has started to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy, leading to a sustained increase in demand for the US dollar, which has led to a significant rise in the US dollar against the yen in the near future. Long term. Recently, investors believe that a significant interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve may lead to a recession in the US economy, causing continued pressure on the stock market and indirectly boosting demand for yen. Therefore, it poses pressure on the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

From a technical analysis perspective, the price trend continues to show a strong upward trend. In addition, the EMA (Index Moving Average) within the 1-hour time range also shows a strong upward trend. Therefore, we believe that the US dollar will continue to rise against the Japanese yen.

In response to rising inflation, investors are increasingly concerned about rising interest rates. As a result, the US stock index continues to come under pressure. Due to high inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may be forced to significantly tighten policies, leading to the possibility of the economy entering a recession and putting pressure on the stock index. Yesterday, the S&P 500 continued to exert pressure as US economic data fell short of market expectations and risk aversion sentiment intensified.

From a technical analysis perspective, we can see that the price trend has significantly declined. In addition, the EMA (Index Moving Average) shows a downward trend within a 4-hour time frame, indicating a lower trend than below. Therefore, the SP500 will be more likely to be under pressure.

In response to rising inflation, investors are increasingly concerned about raising interest rates. As a result, the US stock index continues to come under pressure. Due to high inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may be forced to significantly tighten policies, leading to the possibility of the economy entering a recession and putting pressure on the stock index. Yesterday, DJ30 continued to exert pressure as the US economic data fell short of market expectations, leading to an increase in risk aversion.

In terms of technical analysis, the exchange rate has exceeded the main support area of 32750, indicating that the next action can be strengthened. In addition, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) within the 4-hour time frame shows a downward trend with a cross below. Therefore, we believe that DJ30 will continue to be under pressure.

The German economy has entered a period of recovery, and demand for commodities continues to rise, leading to inflation rates constantly reaching new highs. In addition, Europe is planning to ban imports of Russian crude oil, which will exacerbate inflation in Europe. Therefore, DAX30 continues to be under pressure.

In terms of technical analysis, the exchange rate has broken through the strong resistance of 14000, indicating an upward trend in the exchange rate. In addition, EMA (Exponential Moving Average) displays a range within a 4-hour time range. Therefore, the DAX40 is likely to rise.

As countries are in a period of recovery, they have begun to tighten monetary policies or raise interest rates to prevent economic overheating. Indirectly, risky products will continue to be affected, and the stock index will also be under pressure.

From the perspective of technical analysis, the price trend has breakthrough resistance. But within the daily time frame, it still shows a continuing downward trend. In addition, the EMA (Index Moving Average) within the 4-hour time range also shows a strong downward trend. Therefore, the Hang Seng Index is likely to continue to decline.

BTCUSD

Due to the high probability of future interest rate hikes and monetary policy tightening among Federal Reserve members, the Federal Reserve announced an increase in interest rate hikes from 0.50% to 1.00%, leading to a short-term decline in Bitcoin. In addition, in response to rising inflation, investors are increasingly concerned about raising interest rates. As a result, it has also put pressure on Bitcoin. However, the recent events in Russia and Ukraine have had a significant impact on the economies of various countries, which will help to strengthen the demand for cryptocurrencies in the future. Due to the high consumer price index in the United States, investors believe that the Federal Reserve will be more proactive in raising interest rates. Therefore, apply pressure on Bitcoin.

According to technical analysis, Elliot Wave Theory shows that currently Wave 2 has reached a strong support area near 29000. In addition, within the weekly time frame, EMA (Index Moving Average) also shows a strong support area around 29000. Therefore, Bitcoin may face strong support areas around 29000.

CL OIL

The demand for commodities has begun to cool, and the depreciation of commodity currencies has indirectly put pressure on crude oil. In addition, China's c