Although crude oil rebounded on the last day of February, it still ended the month down about 2.8%. If you look at the monthly line, it is the fourth consecutive month of decline, let the bulls a little relief is the last three months of decline of 4.5 percent, still tolerable range.Last month Review:Looking at the trend change over the last month (see chart below), take a downward trend, then rise and then fall, and finally a small rebound. If you look at the weekly line, it is precisely "up and down" such a cycle, so if the short-term momentum break traders, because they do not understand the past three months of oil prices in the large consolidation range ($72 to $80 per barrel), it is easy to see the trees do not see the forest, confused by the market repair, thinking that to break up, buy more, and stop losses after a sharp fall; On the contrary, think to move down, short, and then rebound sharply after the stop loss.Crude oil chart for FebruaryThe past four weeks have been dominated by several events.Week 1:The US Energy Administration (EIA) reported on February 1 that crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels, well above market expectations of 300,000 barrels, and this was the sixth consecutive week of inventory increases, and other petroleum product inventories showed the same trend, which made market investors feel uneasy. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by one yard (0.25%) in line with market expectations, but the US non-farm data exceeded expectations, accelerating the decline of oil prices to near the bottom 72 of the range.Crude inventories rose 4.1 million barrels a week, beating market expectations for a 300,000 barrel riseWeek 2:The tragic earthquake in Turkey, which halted operations at Turkey's Ceyhan oil export terminal at the time, raised concerns about Middle East oil supplies and, along with Saudi Arabia's unexpected price hike for most of its shipments to Asia, hinted at China's crude demand as its economy resets after ending its coronavirus cleanup policy. In retaliation for the restrictions imposed by Western countries, Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March. Both supply and demand are moving in a positive direction for oil prices, contributing to the high 80 range.Turkey's Ceyhan terminal was once disrupted by the earthquakeWeek 3:The US Department of Energy issued a "Notice of sale" on February 13, announcing plans to sell 26 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic Petroleum Reserve, although the amount is not large, but the oil price was at the upper edge of the range, which can also make up for the total production reduction of 15 million barrels in Russia in March, and then crude oil inventories rose 16.3 million barrels a week, and the hawkish comments of Federal Reserve officials have come out. All of this gave the bears room to leverage, and the price eventually fell to the middle of the range near 76.Fourth week to the end of the month:Oil prices initially continued the impact of the FED's hawkish comments and pressure, but subsequent EIA data showed a decline in crude oil refined product - gasoline inventories, indicating a seasonal strengthening trend in terminal gasoline demand, with the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China and the United States slightly improved, China's restart factor has always supported oil prices. It gave crude oil the momentum to rebound and maintained the upper middle of the range.Looking ahead to March and beyond:Chinese economyAfter all, China is the world's second largest consumer of crude oil, and oil prices are highly correlated with oil demand driven by the Chinese economy. The chart below shows that Russia's oil flow into China reached a record level of 1.66 million barrels per day (BPD) in the year to February 20. Perhaps such import purchases represent evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering faster after the unsealing. The PMI for the last two months has also given some hope, which has indirectly supported oil prices.Russian crude exports to China hit a new high of barrels a dayChina's PMI starts to pick upUs interest rate hikeRecent U.S. economic data, such as non-farm payrolls, unemployment and retail sales, have been good, and recent inflation data, such as the consumer price index or the Fed's core personal consumption expenditure price index, have not fallen as much as investors expected, leading to the rapid fading of hopes that the United States may cut interest rates in the second half of this year. As we can see in the chart below, the market's expectations of the Fed's attitude have changed significantly since the NFP release on February 3, which has caused the dollar to jump from 101 to near 105.The market thinks the Fed rate range will be 5.25% to 5.50% by the end of 2023When the price of crude oil is quoted in the US dollar, it will naturally be depressed, and it is necessary to observe whether the US dollar stands at the key price of 105.5, if so, it is relatively unfavorable to the price of crude oil.OPEC+ 's attitude toward production cutsOPEC in February's monthly report raised expectations for oil demand growth, coupled with the emphasis on market conditions, continue to maintain a daily production cut of 2 million barrels, the willingness to support the bottom of the oil price is still not loose, the global crude oil industry capital expenditure is insufficient, supply elasticity is insufficient, even if the global demand is not keeping up in the short term, oil prices should be strong support near 70.OPEC expects oil demand to continue to rise through 2023Technical aspectMonthly chart of West Texas crude oilFrom the point of view of the monthly line, we see that the last four months have received a long downward line, which shows that the buying around the 70-72 range is relatively solid. From the type point of view, the current price is also in the previous resistance to an important level of support, while the previous three months of high and low amplitude continues to shrink, which is often the compression stage before the arrival of the big market. Although there is no 100% guarantee that the market will shoot up or down, the situation as shown in the current chart indicates that it is possible to turn up at this point.Daily chart of West Texas crude oilTherefore, when switching to the daily line to observe the details, it can be found that the recent market begins to show triangle ripples, under the condition of multi-sided thinking, active traders can intervene in the price station after the triangle ripples upper margin (about 80), as for the steady traders, they need to wait for the market to stand in the past 3 months at the top of the box about 83 positions and then consider becoming long. If the bull market starts smoothly, the upper target price is 90~92, and the lower potential stop loss is 69~73.This article is provided by third parties. ACY Securities makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this article. ACY Securities assumes no liability for investment losses caused by third party advice, forecasts or other information. The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice and has nothing to do with personal investment objectives, financial situation or needs. If you have any questions, please consult an independent professional financial or tax advice.