The dollar has been in a state of beatings in January, and even fell below the 101 level in the first two trading days of February. The main reason is that the market believes that the continued decline in US inflation will cause the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in the short term, and even expects to start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. Even as officials maintain a relatively cautious approach, investors are sticking to their guns and bearish on the dollar.However, the resilience of the labor market will largely determine whether the U.S. economy avoids a recession and will be key to the direction of monetary policy. As a result, on February 3rd it was announced that nonfarm payrolls jumped by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate, at 3.4%, hit a 53-year low. Coupled with the subsequent release of CPI and PPI data showed that inflation slowed down, retail sales were strong, the risk of recession in the United States significantly decreased, investors on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate hike and interest rate peak expectations have to be revised, positioning adjustment led to the US exchange rate index rose more than 300 points, as high as 104.65.Due to the slowing pace of inflation and the strong economic performance, the Fed will have to raise interest rates at least twice in the future, and a total of 0.5% May be the minimum consumption. At the time of writing, there are already voices that the March interest rate hike does not rule out 0.5%, and the peak interest rate will almost certainly be above 5%. As for the economic recession, although the probability is reduced, but the uncertainty is very large, more data are needed to judge, and the performance of the labor market is still an important indicator. At present, the strength of the dollar lies in the fundamentals and inflation trend, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy stance is clear.As for other major economies, some economic performance is relatively repeated, and some inflation pressure shows signs of slowing down, which makes the central bank's monetary policy has greater variables, and it is estimated that the US dollar still has room to recover in the short term. However, we should not forget that the US CPI has fallen from its peak of 9.1% in June last year to the latest 6.4%, and the monthly decline has slowed down but not rebounded. And whether the strong economic data can be sustained is also worth paying attention to, so the US Exchange index should be mainly repeated upward, not easy to appear unilateral upward pattern, 105.20/60 will be the latest resistance zone, should not fall below 103.20 and 102.50.