GEMFOREX · Gemforex: 5 things to watch this week
  Source:GEMFOREX 2023-02-24 11:00:30
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After a relatively quiet week from a financial calendar perspective, we are now into the third week of February. Here are the top five things to watch this week.


1. Us CPI Data (14.02)


Investors are eagerly awaiting Tuesday's U.S. CPI data for signs that inflation is continuing to moderate. After the recent strong jobs data, markets have had to recalibrate their expectations about how high the Fed might need to raise interest rates this year.


Inflation rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated, and the previous two months 'figures were also revised to rise, as seen in the Labor Department's annual revisions. A strong inflation pattern could force the market to reassess whether the Fed will actually cut rates before the end of the year, which could dampen the boost to stocks and the rally in bonds after last year's crash.


Also on the economic calendar are January retail sales data, PPI data and weekly jobless claims. Several Fed officials are scheduled to appear this week, including New York Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.


Second, the US stock earnings situation is getting better


The Nasdaq posted its first weekly loss of the year last week, falling 2.41 percent, while the S&P 500 ended the week 1.11 percent lower and the Dow 0.17 percent lower, a week dominated by hawkish comments from Fed officials and earnings reports.


According to Refinitiv, more than half of the companies listed on the S&P 500 have reported, and 69 percent of them have beaten profit expectations for the quarter.


Notable earnings in the coming week include Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), which reports before the open on Tuesday. Barrick GOLD (NYSE: GOLD), Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ: KHC), Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ: DNUT) and Biogen (NASDAQ: BIIB) are all scheduled to report before the open on Wednesday, while Deere (NYSE: DE) will report before the market opens on Friday.


3. UK Data (14.02 & 15.02)


This week's UK inflation and employment data will help the Bank of England determine the direction of its March interest rate decision. The Bank of England has indicated that February's 50 basis point rate rise is likely to be the last in the current tightening cycle, however, Wednesday's January Inflation report is expected to show that price rises are still in double digits.


Meanwhile, Tuesday's jobs report is expected to show wage growth continuing to rise, keeping the Bank of England under pressure, while Friday's January retail sales figures are expected to show another fall.


The Bank of England forecast last week that Britain would enter a shallow but prolonged recession, starting in the first quarter of this year and lasting five quarters.


Bank of Japan


On Tuesday, the government will formally nominate a surprise candidate to succeed Mr. Kuroda. His decade as governor of the Bank of Japan is coming to an end.


The yen initially moved higher after reports on Friday that Kazuo Ueda, 71, a former member of the Bank of Japan's policy board, would be nominated. However, once he expressed support for the BOJ's current stance, the currency lost some of its gains. Whether or when and how the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy stance is one of the major questions facing international markets this year. Observers of the Bank of Japan suspect that its ultra-loose monetary policy may shift as inflation rises.


Ueda is considered an expert on monetary policy, however, and many analysts said his appointment came as a complete surprise and could be seen as a signal to halt ultra-low interest rates sooner than initially expected.


Euro Area (14.02 & 15.02)


The European Commission will publish quarterly economic forecasts for the eurozone on Wednesday. Before that, the eurozone will release revised GDP data on Tuesday.


European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will testify about the bank's annual report before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday. Other ECB officials due to appear this week include chief economist Philip Lane and Vice President Luis de Guindos.