Yesterday, Hong Kong stocks were able to close slightly higher by 2 points under Tencent's (00700) "One Day Protection Supreme" policy. Due to the significant increase in the market from the beginning of the year to the present, and the continued wait-and-see policy direction of investors during the two sessions, it is believed that the market will continue to compete at the 29000 level in the short term. We still need to pay attention to the peripheral market. The recent trend of US stocks has weakened. If the economic data released this week disappoints the market, there may be a considerable opportunity for US stocks to adjust.

In addition, the global stock market has performed quite well since the beginning of the year, with a long-awaited rise in the mainland. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Index rose 25% and 32% respectively during the year, with transactions exceeding one trillion yuan. The recent market rise is more or less supported by news from the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the significant increase in shares is also related to high-tech; However, compared to some listed Chinese concept stocks in the United States, their increase is only minor. Taking CIFS and JMU, which are two of the more prominent shares, as examples, the former has risen by 500% this year, while the latter has also risen by 271%.

Why can both perform so well? According to online introductions, Shengyingxin itself is engaged in "providing innovative financial services to customers, financial technology products and industry application solutions based on big data and AI technology". It was listed in the United States in mid-2017, but its stock price continued to "plunge" after the listing, plummeting by 92.5% from its highest level of $66.1! As for Zhongmei Lian, a third-party e-commerce platform in mainland China, it has accumulated a cumulative "penetration" of 98% since its listing. Therefore, even with the recent rebound, it is still of no help to investors who have already held stocks, and both have been labeled as "monster stocks" by many mainland media. However, the volatility of Chinese concept stocks has always been astonishing, so it is recommended that everyone "not familiar with them or playing them" would be better.

In addition, yesterday's government work assistance report proposed multiple categories and goals, among which the author is more concerned about mentioning "continuing to implement preferential policies for the purchase of new energy vehicles". The author has always been pessimistic about the development of the mainland automotive industry in the past, but in recent years, there has been some improvement in the development of new energy vehicles, all because he believes that the mainland will continue to introduce more stimulus measures. But when further research was conducted recently, a cruel truth was discovered: there is a great chance of overcapacity in the future of new energy vehicles.

According to the estimation of the mainland research institution Saidi Think Tank, there are a total of 113 new energy vehicle projects under construction and planned in China, with an estimated production capacity of 21.089 million vehicles. The strength of the production capacity has reached 10 times the target of 2 million new energy vehicle production and sales by 2020, as proposed in the "Medium and Long Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry"!

In addition, similar situations have also occurred in the relevant industrial chains. Taking power batteries as an example, it is estimated that if all the planned power battery production capacity in the country is released, the total amount will reach 170GWh/year, which is more than 7 times the current market demand; According to the current production capacity plan, the total production capacity of the mainland in 2020 will reach 285GWh, far higher than the actual demand of 97GWh.

In fact, the relevant situation has also attracted the attention of the central government. In December last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Automobile Industry Investment Policy", which raised the entry threshold of the industry from investment in technology to production capacity, hoping to cool down somewhat; The problem is that many large enterprises have already taken control of relevant sectors, such as Evergrande, Baoneng, and Gree Electric Appliances. It seems that whether it is traditional or new energy vehicles, if we cannot solve the problem of overcapacity in the future, this important pillar of the mainland industry may not be able to "turn around".