February 21, 2023 - Fundamentals AlertThe European Union will hold a meeting of energy ministers today to see if they will extend emergency measures to reduce gas demand.Later today, Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver a State of the nation address, Russian presidential press Secretary Dmitry Peskov has said that Putin will be in the State of the nation address on special military operations and the international situation assessment.☆ Reminder: at 3:30 am on Wednesday, NYMEX New York crude oil March futures are affected by the transfer of positions to the month, and the final trading on the floor will be completed at 3:30 am on February 22, and the final trading on the electronic market will be completed at 6:00 AM. Please pay attention to the risk control announcement of the trading venue for the expiration of the month. In addition, the expiration time of US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, please pay more attention.Market overviewGlobal markets resumed their trendOn Monday, spot gold traded in a narrow range during the day, rising as high as $1,847.39, before closing down 0.05 percent at $1,841.34 an ounce. Spot silver closed up 0.43 percent at $21.82 an ounce.The dollar index fell below the 104 mark and was last down 0.06 percent at 103.88. The 10-year Treasury was closed for the day.In terms of crude oil, the two oil days rebounded. WTI crude oil climbed back above $77 and ended up 1.06 percent at $77.36 a barrel. Brent crude settled up 0.86 percent at $83.68 a barrel.Us markets were closed yesterday for the Presidents Day holiday.European stocks were mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index closing down 0.03% at 15,477.55; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.12 percent at 8,014.31; The Euro Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.09 percent at 4,271.18.Market hot spot1. Putin is expected to deliver his State of the Nation address at 5:00 PM Beijing time today (21st).2. Biden made a surprise visit to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and met with Zelensky. The visit lasted about five hours, and he informed Russia a few hours before leaving.3. The EU carbon price exceeded 100 euros/ton for the first time.4. India's oil imports from Russia climbed to a record 1.4 million barrels per day (BPD) in January, up 9.2 percent from December.5. On the 20th local time, the ROK military detected the DPRK firing two unidentified ballistic missiles into the sea east of the peninsula in the Suchon area of South Pyongan Province on the morning of the same day.6. SNB Vice President: If there is a depreciation of the Swiss franc, we will be ready to sell foreign exchange and vice versa.Geopolitical situationSituations of conflict:1. Biden made a surprise visit to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, to meet with Zelensky. The entire visit lasted about five hours and Russia was informed a few hours before departure.2. Biden's Air Force One landed in Warsaw, Poland.3. In advance of Biden's visit to Kiev, the United States engaged with Russia to rule out miscalculations that could lead to direct confrontation between the two countries. As Russian MiG jets took off, air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine.4. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian forces have taken full control of the village of Paraskoviivka near Bahmut.Assistance:Since December 2021, NATO countries have sent 1,170 air defense systems, 440 tanks, 1,510 infantry fighting vehicles and 655 artillery systems to Ukraine. SVR: Most of the military equipment supplied by the West to Ukraine has been destroyed by the Russian army.2. The United States will provide Ukraine with $500 million in aid, which will be officially announced on the 21st. The aid includes military equipment such as Hamis rockets, anti-tank systems and radars.According to the Russian satellite network: Biden said that the United States and its Allies have committed to send about 700 tanks, thousands of armored vehicles and more than 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine.4. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal: Met with IMF Managing Director Georgieva, we hope to receive IMF multi-year support worth $15 billion.5. Italy is open to joining its Western Allies in supplying warplanes to Ukraine. Italy is ready to provide five warplanes to Ukraine if its Western Allies start to act.Institutional perspective01Goldman Sachs: The European Central Bank will raise the terminal rate to 3.5%Economists at Goldman Sachs recently raised their forecast for the ECB's final interest rate to 3.5%, citing expectations of a more hawkish stance from policymakers, including ECB Executive Board member Bernard Schnabel. Goldman expects the ECB to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in June, with the deposit rate currently at 2.5 per cent and policymakers having signalled their intention to raise rates by another 50 basis points next month. Finally, Goldman Sachs says a 50 basis point ECB rate hike in May is "still possible," but it now sees a 25 basis point increase as more likely.02SOCIETE GENERALE: [Societe Generale: ECB may raise interest rates further, boost the euro]Societe Generale said the European Central Bank could raise interest rates further sharply to curb inflation, boosting the euro. Olivier Korber, currency strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note that a reduced risk of recession in Europe and a tight labor market should maintain upside risks to core inflation. The bank's economists still expect the ECB to tighten policy sharply further, pausing only when the economy is on a more sustainable path of falling inflation. Korber said expectations of peak rates could be repriced higher as the market takes a cautious approach.03MUFG: [MUFG: If British inflation cools further, the pound may fall further]Mufg said the pound would face further falls if forthcoming data showed UK inflation cooling further ahead of the next Bank of England policy meeting. Mitsubishi UFJ economist Derek Halpenny said Wednesday's data showed U.K. inflation slowed more than expected in January, suggesting the Bank of England is likely to pause its rate hike cycle in March. Halpenny noted that after Tuesday's UK jobs data, the market had fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in March, but it has now fallen to 80 percent. If inflation figures slow further in February, interest rates are expected to have "ample scope" to fall further, which would weigh on the pound.