TMGM: Daily Market
  Source:TMGM 2023-02-20 11:40:46
Description:

On Tuesday, influenced by more stubborn inflation than expected, spot gold fluctuated significantly during the US market. After reaching a short-term bottom, it jumped over $20 and briefly touched the 1870 level. However, it then fell again and briefly fell below the 1850 level, ultimately closing up 0.04% at $1854.36/ounce; Spot silver briefly reached the $22 level, but failed to stabilize and ultimately closed down 0.62% at $21.85 per ounce. The US dollar index showed a "N" shaped trend during the trading session, ultimately closing down 0.02% at 103.25; The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a high of 3.755%, while the five-year US Treasury yield briefly exceeded 4% during the session, marking the first time since December 30 of last year. In terms of crude oil, the "V" market emerged between the two oil markets. WTI crude oil fell by more than 2% at one point and fell below $78, before recovering some lost ground and finally closing 0.38% lower at $78.80 per barrel; Brent crude oil briefly fell to a low of $84.11 and eventually closed 0.59% lower at $85.25 per barrel.


Fundamentals: US January CPI data shows that US inflation is more stubborn than market expectations. The United States' non quarterly CPI recorded an annual rate of 6.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 6.20%, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline and the smallest increase since October 2021. The core CPI of the United States recorded an annualized rate of 5.6% in January, the smallest increase since December 2021.


Technically, the euro on the daily line has emerged from a clear pattern of rising and falling, reaching its highest position at the 1.08 level. In terms of form, it has also formed a clear needle negotiation in combination with the previous one. At the H4 level, the exchange rate has also started to decline after testing the moving average system above, as the intraday strategy continues to maintain a correction in short orders.


First resistance level: 1.0750 First support level: 1.0700


Second resistance level: 1.0780 Second support level: 1.0670


Fundamentals: US January CPI data shows that US inflation is more stubborn than market expectations. The United States' non quarterly CPI recorded an annual rate of 6.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 6.20%, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline and the smallest increase since October 2021. The core CPI of the United States recorded an annualized rate of 5.6% in January, the smallest increase since December 2021.


Technically, from a daily perspective, the exchange rate has continued to show a clear pattern of rising and falling, forming a needle punched market. This morning, the exchange rate formed a continuous pattern, and at the H4 level, it can be clearly seen that the exchange rate has formed a needle punched pattern of rising and falling. However, unlike the euro, the exchange rate has maintained a certain level of volatility, so the intraday strategy continues to treat it according to the idea of volatility.


First resistance level: 1.2190 First support level: 1.2110


Second resistance level: 1.2220 Second support level: 1.2070


Fundamentals: The Japanese government has officially nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next governor of the Bank of Japan, and nominated Shinichi Ueda and Ryose Ichino as deputy governors.


Technically, the United States and Japan have shown a clear technical trend on the daily line: the exchange rate has broken through the bottom range and started to rebound, forming a needle shaped pattern, and then pulled up and up. At the H4 level, after testing the support of the moving average system, the exchange rate began to rise to a certain level and reached a new high above the 133 level.


First resistance level: 133.30 First support level: 132.60


Second resistance level: 133.70 Second support level: 132.30


Fundamentals: US January CPI data shows that US inflation is more stubborn than market expectations. The United States' non quarterly CPI recorded an annual rate of 6.4% in January, exceeding expectations of 6.20%, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline and the smallest increase since October 2021. The core CPI of the United States recorded an annualized rate of 5.6% in January, the smallest increase since December 2021.


Technically, the exchange rate, like other non US currencies, has experienced a certain trend of rising and falling, but overall, the exchange rate is still fluctuating in the range and there is a high probability of testing the support of the bottom level. At the H4 level, the exchange rate also continues to remain within the range of fluctuations, so the intraday strategy continues to follow the trend of fluctuations.


Resistance support level:


First resistance level: 0.6970 First support level: 0.6910


Second resistance level: 0.7000 Second support level: 0.6880


Fundamentals: FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams stated that recent data supports further interest rate hikes, and the Federal Reserve has not yet adjusted interest rates to the required level, requiring them to remain at restrictive levels for a period of time. In addition, the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates above current expectations and may lower rates in 24 or 25 years.


Technically, gold on the daily line has continued to show a clear upward and downward trend, and pricing has also continued to show a certain downward trend today. Overall, it is still under the control of bearish positions. At the H4 level, CPI data is a pull up and down trend for gold prices, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged. Therefore, the intraday strategy continues to maintain the bearish mentality of pullback.


Resistance support level:


First resistance level: 1855.00 First support level: 1843.00


Second resistance level: 1863.00 Second support level: 1835.00


Fundamentals: OPEC's monthly report shows that it has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth this year from 2.22 million barrels per day to 2.3 million barrels per day. API inventory has increased comprehensively for the third consecutive week, with crude oil inventory significantly increasing by 10.5 million barrels, marking the eighth consecutive week of increase. Cushing crude oil inventory has risen for the seventh consecutive week, and gasoline and distillate inventories are also increasing.


Technically, on a daily basis, the oil price has formed a clear bottom and then pulled up, forming a needle pierced bottom. However, in early trading today, the oil price still fell, which may have been suppressed by the top moving average system. On the H4 level, the oil price has started to decline after the top oscillation, and the support of the moving average system has been tested. If it falls below, it is possible to test the 76.4 position, Therefore, the intraday strategy is still treated as a range of small fluctuations.


Resistance support level:


First resistance level: 79.60 First support level: 76.40


Second resistance level: 81.20 Second support level: 75.80