A market strategist said that safe haven buying and inflation concerns, which drove gold prices higher in the last few months of last year and January of this year, have now come to an end, and there is little new information to push gold prices back above $1900 per ounce.

Senior investment strategist Rob Haworth stated that he does not believe there will be any significant selling of gold this year, but there are signs that the gold market has peaked.

His outlook for gold is generally neutral, with gold prices currently below $1850 per ounce, making it difficult to attract new bullish attention.

He pointed out that although the inflation rate is still high, there is still a downward trend in gold. At the same time, concerns about economic recession continue to ease. He added that analysts at USBWM expect the US economy to barely avoid a recession this summer, and economic growth will recover before the end of the year.

He said, "The question investors need to ask themselves is, what is the next trend for gold? Looking back, we can explain and understand the price trends of the past three months, but will this situation continue for six months? This may only lead to greater volatility within a larger trading range

The Federal Reserve continues to maintain its aggressive monetary policy

A key factor affecting the future direction of gold remains the US dollar. Haworth explained that a weaker US dollar may provide some support for gold. However, he added that they believe this situation is unlikely to occur.

He said that although inflation is slowing down, it will continue to be high enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is nearing its end and is expected to raise interest rates one or two more times. Hawthorn pointed out that the Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to loosen policy at any time this year.

He said, "As the Federal Reserve perseveres, we expect real interest rates to continue to rise, but inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, which is another unfavorable factor for gold

Intense competition among safe haven assets, including gold

Haworth added that another issue facing gold is the increasingly fierce competition for safe haven assets. Although the yield curve of the US bond market is inverted, which is still the largest difference since the early 1980s, he pointed out that the yield of the entire curve continues to rise.

He pointed out that short-term bonds became attractive again, and the current yield of one-year treasury bond was 5%. He said, "Even if inflation rises, I still have actual returns now, basically in cash, which should absorb some of the demand for gold

As for the overall portfolio position, Haworth stated that they remain relatively defensive but are beginning to shift towards a more neutral stance. He added that in order to hedge against inflation, they continue to invest in global infrastructure assets. He also said that they are starting to pay more attention to the public utility industry.

He said, "We may be more inclined to adopt a defensive stance, but we are currently evaluating what kind of defensive stance we hope to adopt and what are the downside risks we face