Any trading strategy is based on a certain level of market analysis and is consistent with your analytical methods. The so-called sense of trading and intuition cannot serve as guidance and basis for trading. Trading strategies must be combined with analytical methods, and trading strategies without analytical methods do not have practical significance.
Many trading experts exclude bottoming and bottoming as profound lessons of failure from trading strategies, but for me, bottoming and bottoming are the foundation and key. Due to my analytical approach being primarily focused on identifying market turning points, my trading strategy is significantly different from the trend based trading strategy. The steps may be the same, but the connotations are different.
My trading strategy consists of several steps: trial market, bottom position, lock order, overweight, and close position.
1、 Trial drive strategy:
The trial market strategy is an opening strategy adopted when there is a possibility of a turning point in the trend occurring earlier than our prediction. The position is extremely light, and the opening funds are controlled below 10%, usually only 5%.
In our analysis method, the turning point of the trend is generally certain and will appear as expected according to our predictions. Sometimes, due to the unexpected location of a market turning point, we cannot determine whether its level of transition has increased, which means that the overall trend turning point may occur earlier than our prediction. Since it cannot be fully determined as the turning point of the trend, a trial market strategy is adopted to limit the price at this turning point until the loss level is reached.
Stop loss is not a trading strategy, but a trading principle that runs through the entire trading process. No matter how confident we are in our analytical methods, there is no guarantee that we can maintain an objective and calm mindset at all times. When we make mistakes, we use stop losses to correct them. Only stopping losses can prevent a lucky mentality.
As it is a trial offer, we are always ready to flee the warehouse. Escaping positions is an important preventive measure for trial trading strategies. There are two types of escape positions: one is stop loss, and the other is stop gain. Due to the fact that the trial market is not opened at an exact turning point of the trend, it is necessary to confirm the turning point of the trend at the next turning point. If this turning point is not to strengthen the turning point of the trend, but to strengthen the previous trend, then profit stopping measures should be taken.
The trial drive is not aimed at profit, but rather at calming down one's mentality. Regardless of whether the trial is successful or not, it has a blood pressure reducing effect on reducing the emotions of worrying about gains and losses. Sometimes, losing an important opportunity is more painful than making a mistake.
2、 Bottom Warehouse Strategy:
The bottom position strategy is an undercover or top down operation strategy carried out during a turning point in the general trend. The opening funds are above 10%, generally controlled at around 20%, and the loss level is reached at the limit price of the turning point.
Both the trial and bottom positions are opening operations, but the difference is significant. There are four main differences:
One is the different judgments on the turning point of the overall situation. The trial market is based on possibility judgment, while the bottom warehouse is based on inevitability judgment.
The second is a different mindset. Although there is a possibility that the trial market may become a bottom position, it is always ready to escape the position. Although the bottom position also emphasizes stop loss, stop loss is only a preventive measure, and no matter the market changes, it will never stop earning.
The third reason is that the warehouse quantity is different. The trial warehouse has a light weight, while the bottom warehouse has a heavy weight. The quantity of the bottom warehouse is four times that of the test plate.
The fourth is that the purpose is different. The main focus of the trial market is to calm down the mentality, while the bottom position is aimed at profitability. The bottom warehouse plays a crucial role as the foundation and confidence for subsequent operations.
The bottom warehouse operation generally adopts a layout strategy of entering the market in batches in the turning trend area. Generally speaking, there are not many single day V-shaped reversal patterns that occur during the turning point of the trend, and most of them form a process of accumulating momentum, which is either large or small. Sometimes, this process is quite long and tedious. Due to the heavy storage volume, the psychological burden of enduring this long process is heavier if one invests in the bottom warehouse operation.
Therefore, the layout is generally completed in three stages. The first time it entered on a turning point, the funds were 50% of the bottom position. The second time at the turning point of the trial, the funds were 25% of the bottom position. The third time it entered on the day of breakthrough in the trend changing form, with funds remaining at 25% of the bottom position.
The bottom warehouse volume cannot meet the planned target, and the layout of warehouse receipts will also be reduced accordingly, but this is a principle that must be followed. So I don't like V-shaped reversals. Although V-shaped reversals make money quickly, V-shaped reversals make less money.
Some turning areas do not have a long running time, and the lower the level, the shorter the running time of the trend. But some super trends, especially big bull bottoms, have a very long turnaround time in the turning area. Therefore, in the process of holding on to the bottom of the bottom order, it is necessary to have a mentality of perseverance. After setting the stop loss position, I will remain steadfast in any direction. The 'motionless as a mountain' technique of the Jiutian War Technique is the mental technique that should be applied in this state.
If short-term trading is like a blitzkrieg, seizing the best opportunity, sealing the throat with one sword, and leaving with one strike, then long-term trading is like a prolonged battle, a long-term struggle of strategy, courage, confidence, and will. Especially in the bottom position stage, due to the lack of floating profit protection, only the stop loss price serves as a psychological defense line, and without the determination to "defend the strong city", it is difficult to achieve much. Many trading strategies that take advantage of the situation use breakthroughs as the starting point for bottom positions. On the one hand, it is necessary to wait until the trend is confirmed, and on the other hand, it is to avoid the arduous and outstanding process of "defending the strong city". This is also the disadvantage of undercover and top dressing.
3、 Lockout strategy:
In my opinion, there are two types of locking: active locking and passive locking. Passive lockdown is due to making orders in the wrong direction and being forced to carry out lockdown operations in order to prevent losses from further expanding. Active lockdown is the opposite, based on the judgment that there is a secondary reverse movement in the future market, in order to lock in profits.
Unlocking is a challenge for passive locking. Adopting a passive lockdown operation instead of a stop loss operation indicates an unclear or lucky attitude towards the future market situation. Stop loss is a quick cut that can start from scratch. Passive lockdown, on the other hand, carries a psychological burden and further exacerbates the mentality of worrying about gains and losses. Therefore, the best strategy is to kill rather than lock, even if you make a mistake, you should still kill.
Our locking operation is active locking. Adopting an active lockdown strategy instead of a profit closing strategy is because lockdown strategy has more advantages: firstly, it holds the bottom warehouse order and has psychological advantages. Bottom warehouse receipts with floating profits are generally not easily liquidated. When adding weights, psychological support is also required from the floating profit of the bottom warehouse receipt. Secondly, there is an advantage in accumulating positions, and there is more room for profit from locking in positions.
Of course, if you have a strong mentality and self-control, you can also increase the new order's position after the closing operation to the cumulative position increased after the locking operation. But this operation tramples on risk control rules, and the more successful it is, the more it will fuel the expansion of greed. A fluke of one foul will bring a fluke of multiple fouls, eventually getting deeper and deeper. In the risk market, trampling on rules is like digging one's own grave.
The lockdown strategy has two purposes. One is the mentality fluctuation that is not aimed at profit, but only to avoid volatile areas. The second is to maximize profits and diversify long-term operations. It is relatively easier to achieve the first goal, without considering the position of the lock in position. Just lock in the profit until the judgment of the end of the oscillation is released.
Achieving the second goal is not so e