Essen, UK

01Source: Biden government is considering releasing up to 180million barrels of oil reserves in a few months

① Opec+composed of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia and other allies will meet to discuss reducing supply restrictions. The United States, Britain and other countries have urged opec+to rapidly increase production. But opec+is expected to stick to the existing agreement of gradually increasing oil production when it meets on Thursday.

② According to the data of the US Department of energy, the US SPR currently holds 568.3 million barrels of crude oil, the lowest level since May 2002. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that the United States is a net exporter of oil.

③ The White House did not comment on the plan to release oil reserves.

④ When visiting Europe last week, US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the United States and its allies in the IEA were discussing the issue of further coordinating the release of oil reserves.

⑤ A spokesman for Australian energy minister Angus Taylor said that the IEA had convened an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the issue of oil supply.

⑥ IEA Member States agreed to release more than 60million barrels of oil reserves in early March, including 30million barrels from the US SPR.

02Argentina is analyzing the impact of raising export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal

A government source said that Argentina was weighing the impact of raising export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal. Argentina suspended the export registration of soybean oil and soybean meal on Sunday, triggering the market expectation that the export tariff of soybean oil and soybean meal will be raised. The Argentine government has not publicly commented on its plans. At present, the export tax rate of soybean oil and soybean meal in Argentina is 31%, and the export tax rate of soybean is 33%. The recent surge in grain prices has benefited the country's exports, but it is difficult to stabilize domestic prices. The president of Argentina promised to "declare war" on inflation this week, after official data showed that the country's inflation was as high as 52%, and continued to rise due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that if the export tax rate of soybean oil and soybean meal is increased by 2%, the tax will increase by US $425million. These funds may help to subsidize the domestic food costs.

03JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May and June

Morgan raised its forecast of the rate of interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in the next two meetings, higher than the previous 0.25 percentage points. Michael feroli, the bank's chief analyst, said that it was clear that Federal Reserve officials were eager to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, so they changed the original expectation of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and June to 50 basis points each, and restored the expectation of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July, which would make the federal funds rate reach 2.875% next year, and then remain stable for a period of time. The adjustment is due to the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell put the option of raising interest rates by 50 basis points on the table in his speech last week, and other officials agreed. Perhaps it is because the market reacted coldly to the results of the FOMC meeting, giving them the opportunity to send a signal to accelerate the pace of tightening.

04CBOT soybeans closed higher, following the trend of corn and wheat market

① Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Wednesday, following the trend of the corn and wheat markets. Traders prepared for the US key crop and inventory report to be released on Thursday due to concerns about the impact of the Ukrainian war.

② CBOT may soybean futures closed up 21 cents at $16.64 per bushel.

③ Cbot-may soybean meal futures closed up $7.10 at $473.10 per short ton, and may soybean oil contracts closed up 0.56 cents at 72.22 cents per pound.

④ CBOT corn contract closed higher and rebounded from the two-day decline. Ukraine is the world's major supplier of corn because of concerns about the impact of war.

⑤ Cbot-may corn contract closed up 11-3/4 cents at $7.38 per bushel.

05The international nickel Association urges LME, FCA and the Bank of England to restore the stability of the nickel market as soon as possible

The international nickel association is concerned about the current and future impacts of fluctuations. Many market participants have questioned the transparency, stability and safeguard measures of pricing. We welcome the recent resumption of trading, but the current situation is still unstable, and we need to address the huge gap in the short and medium term. In addition, the recent anomalies provide an opportunity for LME to understand how this situation is formed, how to avoid the recurrence of similar situations, and how to put forward a set of stronger, more transparent and more reliable safeguard measures to protect the market and market participants.

06As the war in Ukraine continues to drag on, the economic rift in the euro zone is widening

① Data and warnings from policy makers on Wednesday clearly show that the European economy is increasingly tense due to the Russian Ukrainian war, and is in a dilemma of stagnant growth, falling confidence and soaring inflation.

② Germany, the largest economy in Europe and one of the countries most dependent on Russian energy, will be the hardest hit. The German government's Economic Advisory Committee on Wednesday cut its economic growth forecast for this year by more than half to 1.8%. (full story)

③ Volker Wieland, a member of the committee, believes that the risk of economic recession is huge, and the economy now needs to recover to the scale before the epidemic in the third quarter. It is predicted that the inflation rate in Germany will double to more than 6%.

④ European Central Bank President Lagarde also warned that with the delay of the conflict, the losses suffered by the European economy may be greater than what was feared a few weeks ago.

⑤ She said in a speech, "the longer the war lasts, the higher the economic cost will be paid, and the greater the possibility that we will eventually fall into a more unfavorable situation."

⑥ Lagarde believes that families have become increasingly pessimistic, and enterprises may soon postpone investment.

⑦ The European Commission announced on Wednesday that consumer confidence in the euro zone fell in March, while inflation expectations rose to a record high.

⑧ Spain's inflation rate rose to 9.8% in March from 7.6% in February, the highest since May 1985. Meanwhile, Germany's annual inflation rate in March exceeded expectations to reach 7.6%, the highest level since the early 1980s, indicating that the inflation rate in the euro area to be announced on Friday will almost certainly exceed the 6.6% estimated by economists.

07Aluminum futures rose as Russian supply concerns reignited and the US dollar fell

① The price of aluminum and other industrial metals rose on Wednesday, and the weakening dollar made non-U.S. buyers feel that metals are cheaper.

② Russia is a major producer of aluminum, copper and nickel, as well as a major producer of natural gas and coal for smelters. Since the Russian Ukrainian crisis on February 24 triggered sanctions and disrupted the supply route, the prices of these products have been rising.

③ London Metal Exchange (LME) index period aluminum closed up 2.7% to US $3546 per ton.

④ Aluminum used for packaging, transportation and construction has increased by about 25% this year, while aluminum prices have risen by 42% in 2021 due to supply shortages.

⑤ Jens Pedersen, an analyst at dansk bank in Denmark, said that the metal has not really taken a firm footing. Investors are weighing the hope of easing the situation and the possibility of the new crown epidemic reducing China's demand, as well as concerns about further sanctions, rising energy prices and supply disruptions.

⑥ The premium of LME spot tin relative to the three-month futures contract rose sharply to about US $1000 per ton, the highest level since November last year, indicating tight supply.

08The Bank of Japan continued to defend the yield ceiling, and investors focused on the bond purchase plan in the second quarter;

① On Thursday, the Bank of Japan proposed unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury bonds for the fourth consecutive day to prevent the index yield from rising above the key level. The sharp rise in global yields in the past few weeks has brought upward pressure.

② This announcement was expected and in line with earlier commitments. Thursday is the last day of the first quarter.

③ Investors are concerned about whether the Bank of Japan will increase the frequency and quantity of bond purchases in accordance with the market operation plan for the second quarter. The plan is scheduled to be released later Thursday.

④ After falling to a low of 0