Focus today

Today (February 7), the US dollar rose at the opening of Asia, while other currencies generally fell; Both gold and crude oil are on the rise. Foreign exchange: the dollar index rose to 103.45; EURUSD fell to 1.0737; GBP/USD remained around 1.2050; The dollar rose to 132.33 against the yen; The dollar rose to 1.3416 against the Canadian dollar; The Australian dollar fell to 0.6917 against the US dollar. Precious metals: gold rose to 1873.85 against the US dollar. Crude oil: Brent crude oil rose to 81.64.

USD/Canadian dollar (USDCAD):

After closing slightly higher against the Canadian dollar on Monday, the US dollar rose to around 1.3416 in the opening trading today. Due to the strong labor market in the United States, the Canadian dollar was slightly volatile and weak.

Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that she saw a way to avoid economic recession. Given the strength of the US labor market, inflation will fall sharply and the economy will remain strong. Recalling that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last Wednesday and said that it had made progress in fighting inflation, which prompted investors to expect that the pace of interest rate hikes would slow down in the future. The data released last Friday showed that the employment growth in the United States accelerated significantly in January, and the unemployment rate hit the lowest 3.4% in more than 53 and a half years, indicating that the labor market is stubbornly tight, which may be a painful problem at a time when Federal Reserve policymakers are trying to fight inflation.

In terms of yesterday's financial event data, the Conference Board of the US Advisory Council announced that the employment trend index of January was higher than that of the previous period to 118.74, reflecting the growth of changes in the employment market. Richard Ivey business school in Canada announced that the PMI in January rose sharply compared with the previous period, reflecting a significant boost in manufacturing activities. In addition, Statistics Canada announced that the monthly rate of leading indicators in January improved to -0.15 compared with the previous period, indicating that the future economic outlook is promising.

From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 1.3410, 1.3450; From the downward direction, the lower support is 1.3380.

EUR/GBP:

After the close of the euro against Sterling fell sharply on Monday, it was hovering around 0.8911 in the opening trading today. The strong U.S. employment report last week raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates for a longer time to combat inflation, which limited the upward movement of the euro and sterling.

Peel, chief economist of the Bank of England, said that so far, the tightening of monetary policy is having an impact, but there are still many problems to be overcome. We will make every effort to make inflation return to the target sustainably, and we must prevent excessive action in monetary policy. Mann, member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, intervened in the debate on brexit, accusing the UK's withdrawal from the EU of exacerbating inflation. She said that there were signs that the high cost of living in the United States and the European Union was beginning to take a turn, but the United Kingdom had not. Although the three countries have been affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the new crown epidemic, Britain has also been affected by a third kind of impact, which makes it unique: no other country will choose to unilaterally impose trade barriers on its closest trading partners.

In terms of yesterday's financial event data, the European Union's statistics office ISTAT announced that the monthly retail sales rate in December in the euro area fell to -2.8% and -2.7% respectively, reflecting the reduction in market demand for retail goods. In addition, the Economic Research Institute Sentix announced that the investor confidence index of the euro zone in February improved to -8 than expected, indicating that more and more investors are optimistic about the economic development prospects of the euro zone. The Federal Bureau of statistics of Germany announced that the monthly rate of industrial orders in December was higher than expected to 3.2%, highlighting the increasing industrial market activity.

From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 0.8910, 0.8950; From the downward direction, the lower support is 0.8880.

0207 BANNER 2_ Work area

Gold/US dollar (xauusd):

After closing slightly higher against the US dollar on Monday, gold opened at around 1873.85 today. As concerns about the global economic slowdown lingered, the market valued the safe haven appeal of gold, and bargain hunting continued to support the gold price.

In terms of positive factors, Phillip streible, chief market strategist of blue line futures, said that in view of lingering concerns about the economic slowdown, it is likely to keep the gold demand stable this year. In addition, the short-term rise of the US dollar index is relatively large, which is now approaching the resistance of the 55 day average. The short-term also faces some correction pressure, which is expected to provide some opportunities for the short-term rebound of gold prices. In addition, all three major US stock markets fell, including the S&P index closing down 0.62%, the Dow Jones index closing down 0.11% and the NASDAQ closing down 1%.

In terms of negative factors, the strong rise of the US dollar has made the gold price fall by nearly $100 in the past few trading days. On Monday, the US dollar index continued its rise last week, reaching a new high in recent four weeks. The daily line recorded three consecutive positive days, because last week's non farm report raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates in a longer period of time to fight inflation. However, at present, the US dollar index is suppressed by the resistance near the 55 day average of 103.82, and the short-term is facing some callback risks, which may provide some short-term rebound opportunities for the gold price. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a four week high of 3.655% on Monday, the highest since January 6. The previous employment data raised the market's expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike will not end due to the hard landing of the economy, and the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. Ism non manufacturing PMI data released last Friday also showed strong performance.

In short, gold prices were boosted by lingering concerns about the global economic slowdown and the narrowing of US stocks, but the rise in US dollar and US bond yields limited the decline of gold prices; The focus of the day will be the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.

Pressing from above (upper resistance) 1873.801875.20; From the downward direction, the lower support is 1871.60.