On Friday (January 10), the international spot gold was at 1550.20 US dollars/ounce in the Asian market morning trading. After extending the decline to the low of US $1540.10 per ounce in the previous trading day, the gold price rebounded slightly from the low. At present, gold shows signs of accelerating decline again this trading day, once falling below the US $1550 level and hitting US $1549.40/ounce as low as in the session.

U.S. President trump recently said, "we seek peace, not hostility. If it threatens the security of the American people, it will pay a heavy price." the last government led the world to war, and we are now on the "road to peace".

On the previous trading day, the US dollar rose steadily and hit a high of 97.57, and then retreated from that point. At the same time, after falling sharply to US $1540, the gold price closed at a low and narrow range. In addition, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher and continued to reach new highs, with WTI crude oil falling to $58.66/barrel.

Gold fell under pressure on the whole in the previous trading day, mainly because the market bet that the United States and Iran would not seek further conflict, thus easing the market risk aversion.

The gold holdings of SPDR gold trust, the world's largest gold backed listed exchange fund, fell 1.05% on Wednesday, reflecting the decline in investors' demand for gold as a safe haven; With the easing of the conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, the U.S. stock index hit a record high. At the same time, people are more optimistic about the Sino US trade situation.

Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the recovery of risk appetite means that safe assets such as gold have been hit by profit taking, and this situation may last for some time.

Ilya Spivak, senior currency strategist at dailyfx, an analysis website, said, "as the United States and Iran seek to resolve the crisis, some market tensions have been eased and gold has fallen sharply. At present, there is no sign of immediate upgrading. Although it is not possible to accurately predict whether it will happen, there are still risks."

Hareesh V, head of the Commodity Research Institute of geojit financial services, said, "the gold price has experienced a steep rise before and is now in correction. It is precisely because the situation in the United States and Iraq is easing. In addition, the optimistic situation of the US dollar in the past two days has also put pressure on the gold price. If the US dollar rises further, it will witness further decline of gold."

In addition, market analysts pointed out that if the global economic and trade situation continues to improve, it will further depress the demand for gold hedging. Therefore, this wave of gold price rise since the end of last year is expected to reverse after the emergence of the technical form of "dark clouds covering the top" on the daily line, and then the initial support is at the 10 day moving average of $1542/ounce.

Bank of England Governor Carney: quantitative easing, forward-looking guidance and interest rate adjustment are part of the toolbox

The threshold for adjusting the UK monetary framework is very high. Setting inflation targets has been proved to be a framework applicable to all seasons and an important part of economic prosperity and a solid foundation. There is still room for policy adjustment of 250 basis points. The monetary policy committee is discussing strengthening the comparative advantage of the expected recovery of UK economic growth and inflation through short-term stimulus measures. The Bank of England's forecast of economic recovery this year is uncertain, The global economy faces the risk of falling into a vicious circle of declining global equilibrium interest rates and shrinking monetary policy space.

In the case of limited room for the reduction of the target interest rate, if more evidence shows that the fatigue of economic activity may continue, risk management considerations will support the rapid introduction of response measures, and the UK economic growth will slow down to below the potential level. The monetary policy committee is discussing the advantages of the recent stimulus measures, and the Bank of England should resist calls for quantitative easing to support policies and have nothing to do with monetary policy, such as environmental policy. The continued weakness of the economy may require a timely response. It is uncertain whether the economy can rebound from the uncertainty of brexit. Preliminary signs show that the uncertainty has decreased.

Outlook for gold Aftermarket

Paul Schatz of heritage capital said that I think the gold price will reach at least 2500-3000 US dollars/ounce by 2025. I don't think the gold rally is over. The gold market is very popular now. Everyone loves gold. Gold is usually regarded as a safe haven asset, but despite the good performance of the stock market, investors still invest in gold.

Shafali Sachdev, Asia Pacific foreign exchange consulting and executive director of BNPP, believes that in the face of the conflict between Iran and the United States, investors should buy gold and sell the currencies of oil importing countries to protect their portfolios.

Goldman Sachs analysts also pointed out that gold is a better hedge against crude oil. After the Middle East crisis in history, gold generally rose by a large margin. This is consistent with the results of our study, that is, in the long run, gold is a better hedging option for geopolitical risks.

Fxempire analyst Ag Thorson reported that due to geopolitical panic, gold fell after rising to a high of US $1613, and the gold price entered a healthy medium-term adjustment. Once the price adjustment is completed, the gold price will resume its rise and hit a new high.

Societe Generale pointed out that gold had a strong performance at the beginning of 2020, and seemed to believe that 1450 would become a new strong support for the gold price in 2020, while 1500 was more like the bottom support of the foundation, which was a psychological defense favored by the market.

At 09:00 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at US $1550.10 per ounce.

Daily market hot spot tracking

In the early trading of Asian market on Friday (January 10), due to the recovery of market risk preference, spot gold continued to be under pressure. The US House of Representatives previously passed a bill limiting president Trump's right to wage war on Iran, which to some extent eased the concern of further escalation of the US Iran conflict. In addition, U.S. President trump recently said that the United States seeks peace. After Trump's speech, the gold price continued to fall, just falling below $1550/ounce. On Friday evening, Beijing time, investors will welcome the non-agricultural employment report, which is expected to trigger market fluctuations.