The Nasdaq 100 is forming a bullish picture, which shows that we have seen the beginning of a bull market, not just a rebound in a bear market. If the index can close above 12000 points by the end of next week, it will pave the way for 13000 points at the end of the first quarter and 13600 points at the end of the year.

Alex kuptsikevich, senior analyst of fxpro, pointed out that the index closed above the most important long-term trend line (the 200 week moving average) last week. The price is also higher than the downward resistance line, and the index has reversed the downward resistance line for many times last year.

These long-term signals look rather weak because the move is very formal. But this week, the rally continued, confirming the confidence of buyers at the current level.

In addition, the Nasdaq 100 index closed above the 200 day moving average yesterday, further confirming the long-term trend reversal. As at the close of last week, this excess level is only nominal, leaving room for doubt.

These suspicions are well founded. The index rose by about 13% in three weeks and returned to the high point in December last year. At that time, the increase has slowed significantly: the decline on Wednesday has been bought out, but the fluctuation around 12000 points continues. The 200 day average has been significantly exceeded.

The index is also close to the oversold area of daily RSI. This indicator is a good predictor of technical correction, although sometimes its signal is too early.

However, our main concern is how different the market expectations are from the Fed's comments. The increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year has been the main driving force for the growth of the high-tech industry.

But what we hear from the official is that we are willing to slow down the tightening pace to 25 basis points each time and further raise interest rates 2-3 times. If the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s official comments next Wednesday confirm the Fed's hawkish position, we may see a repeat of the reversal that occurred in June and August last year.

If we are right, the Nasdaq 100 index may fall back to the 11250-11500 range. The lower bound of this interval is the local low point on January 19, and the upper bound is the 61.8% retracement and 50 day moving average ahead on January 6.