The preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter shows that the annualized growth rate is 2.9% (the month on month growth rate multiplied by 4). This was slower than the previous quarter (3.2%), but better than expected (2.6%).

Alex kuptsikevich, senior analyst at fxpro, pointed out that compared with the same period last year, the economy grew by only 1.0%, higher than 1.9% in the previous quarter. This growth rate is much lower than the trend growth rate (about 2% on average since 2000), reflecting the difficulties of growth in an environment of sharp rise in interest rates.

Stronger than expected GDP growth may be good news for the stock market. Investors can bet that China's economy is relatively well adapted to monetary tightening. But this is a very fragile assumption, because the strong growth of the current monetary cycle will allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster or further than previously expected. The rise of the Nasdaq 100 index since the beginning of the year is largely driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the end of the year, despite the assurances made by Federal Reserve officials to the contrary.

In addition, the dollar index in the foreign exchange market is hitting a multi-month low, which confirms that the expectation of the dove stance of the Federal Reserve is the main driving factor. In this case, the normal situation is that the dollar will strengthen due to better than expected GDP growth data.

Comprehensive data and market reaction make it necessary for traders to pay close attention to what signals the Federal Reserve will send after its meeting next Wednesday.