Unclear factors before the US election are troubling the market, and the US dollar is expected to rise or fall in the short term

The United States announced that the FHFA housing price index for August rose 1.5% month on month, higher than the expected 0.7%; During the same period, the S&P/Case Shiller 20 major city housing price index increased by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.2%. In addition, the US Chamber of Commerce's consumer confidence index for October was 100.9, lower than the expected 102. However, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for the same period was 29, higher than the expected 18. The new round of rescue plan cannot be passed before the election, and the resurgence of risk aversion supports the US foreign exchange index's repeated upward trend.

The preliminary support for the US Foreign Exchange Index is at 92.50, and the next support is at 91.75; The initial resistance is at 93.50, and the next resistance is at 93.90. Affected by the uncertain factors brought about by the US election, short-term safe haven demand has boosted the US foreign exchange index. However, it is estimated that after the election, the US government will increase fiscal spending to stimulate the economy. In addition, the Federal Reserve will maintain a low interest rate policy for a long time, and there is still room for a downward trend in the US dollar median.

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate resolution tonight, and the market expects the central bank to maintain interest rates at 0.25% and raise local economic expectations. Analysts believe that although the Canadian economy is recovering, it is unlikely to raise interest rates before 2023. In addition, the market is concerned about the Bank of Canada's tendency towards negative interest rates. Currently, the Governor of the Bank of Canada has stated that negative interest rates will not be excluded from policy tools. The short-term trend of the Canadian dollar is mainly affected by the US election, energy prices and the COVID-19.

The initial support for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is at 1.3140, and the next support is at 1.3080; The initial resistance is at 1.3225, and the next resistance is at 1.3260. In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has repeatedly fallen against the Canadian dollar in the short term, and the two hour chart is on an upward trajectory. It is recommended that short-term investors buy the Canadian dollar at 1.3180, with a target of 1.3280 and a stop loss of 1.3130.

Energy companies closed some oil production before the storm hit the Gulf Coast, driving oil prices up 2% on Tuesday. UK crude oil futures rose 1.83% to $41.20; US crude oil futures rose 2.62% to 39.57 yuan. The crude oil company closed 16% of its production capacity on Tuesday, which is approximately 294000 barrels per day. However, with the rebound of the global epidemic, crude oil demand is expected to weaken again, suppressing the trend of oil prices. In addition, Libya's oil production is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day in the coming weeks, which is expected to further pressure oil prices. The American Petroleum Institute released inventory data last week, indicating an increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and a decrease in distillate inventories. As of last Friday, oil reserves increased by 4.6 million barrels to approximately 495.2 million barrels, far exceeding the estimated increase of 1.2 million barrels by analysts surveyed by Reuters.

The rebound of the US dollar has suppressed the short-term trend of gold prices, with initial support for gold prices at $1902 and next support at $1891; The initial resistance is at $1915, and the next step is at $1935. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond fell to 0.769%, and the fall in bond interest rate helped support the gold price. It is recommended that short-term investors can buy $1915 at $1905, with a stop loss of $1900.