On January 3rd local time in the United States, the new US Congress, after the midterm elections, is about to be sworn in. The Republican Party, who had just regained a majority in the House of Representatives, awkwardly discovered that the long-awaited Speaker's seat may be in danger of childbirth.

As a background, the Republican Party held a total of 222 seats in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, 9 more than the Democratic Party. As an important matter for the unveiling of the new Congress on Tuesday, the Speaker candidate needs to obtain 218 votes in favor, which means that the Republican candidate can only lose up to 4 votes within the party group.

For Kevin McCarthy, the current minority leader in the House of Representatives and the only challenger to the position of Speaker, although there are no obvious competitors within the party, he is likely to not gather the required 218 votes.

There are significant variables in the voting results

After the weaker-than-expected results of the midterm elections were announced, some ultra conservative Republican lawmakers began publicly accusing McCarthy of being "too soft" towards the Democratic Party.

On New Year's Day, a total of 9 Republican lawmakers publicly issued a joint letter expressing their support for McCarthy as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. These lawmakers emphasized that although McCarthy lacked a "concrete commitment" to their demands, they called for a complete change in the status quo, rather than "continuing the Republican Party's past and present failures".

In addition to the nine members who jointly signed this letter, Republican Representatives Bob Good and Matt Gaetz also made it clear in media interviews that they would not vote for McCarthy as Speaker on Tuesday. Bob Good told the pro Republican Fox News that McCarthy is "part of the problem", not a solution, and there is no sign that he will change his leadership style.

When appearing in Congress on Monday, McCarthy only said "tomorrow will be a good day" when facing media inquiries. But according to media reports, even during a conference call on Sunday night, McCarthy was still unable to announce to Republican lawmakers that he had secured enough support votes.

Against this backdrop, the new US Congress is highly likely to be unveiled in chaos. It is reported that the Republican caucus will hold its final meeting before the Speaker's vote on Tuesday morning, and McCarthy's supporters are also preparing for the worst-case scenario. Kelly Armstrong, a member of the Republican House leadership and North Dakota congressman, stated that although it may not be the ideal way to regain control of the House, they are "preparing to fight" and emphasized that "not everyone is sincerely negotiating".

It is worth mentioning that since there are no clear contenders for McCarthy within the Republican Party, Tuesday's vote is likely to turn into a stalemate that has been recorded in history. According to congressional rules, if McCarthy cannot obtain 218 votes, the vote in the House of Representatives will continue until a candidate can achieve a simple majority, which has never happened since 1923. During this period, the legislative function of the House of Representatives will also be paralyzed.

According to the history of the United States House of Representatives, the 1923 House Speaker election had a total of 9 rounds. As a record, the 1855 House Speaker election had a total of 133 rounds, taking over two months.