From 2020 onwards, with the emergence of the global epidemic, due to a large number of factories and shutdowns, as well as a significant increase in logistics freight costs, the final price of the end product has been greatly pushed up. Whether it is from automobiles and household appliances, or small to lighters and socks, they can not avoid the problem of rising costs and rising freight costs. At a time when we are complaining about red and green peppers in supermarkets selling for $14 a kilo, the number 91 petrol at the petrol station has also reached a staggering $2.20 a litre.And prices, driven by the epidemic, are once again being accelerated by the war between Ukraine and Russia. In the week since the war began, the international price of crude oil has reached a record high of $135 a barrel. Since then, countries around the world have spoken out, hoping that the United States and Middle Eastern oil countries will do something to control oil prices.The United States did try to play the game again. As I said last week, the future direction of oil prices, with almost all Western voices now saying no more Russian oil, makes it critical that Russia's current market share is quickly filled by the United States or Saudi Arabia. The other big story is Iran. At the same time that the United States has banned imports of Russian crude oil, it has begun negotiations with Iran on the possibility of reopening its crude oil exports. You know, Russia and Iran were originally semi-allies, but Iran has been under US sanctions for the past few years, even basic medicines can not be obtained, and it is conceivable that its people and the national economy are on the brink of collapse. If Iran and the United States negotiate to resume oil exports, it will undoubtedly be a very ironic scene for Russia.Some friends may ask, that the oil price has fallen from 135 to 103 in a week, not also down 30%, does it mean that the future price is likely to come down? Retail oil prices may fall in the short term, but prices will not stop rising in the long run. We need to understand that the epidemic may coexist with mankind for a long time, which means that countries around the world cannot recover the flow rate before the epidemic in the short term, and China's adherence to the zero-clearance policy will often cause production capacity to be affected by the control of the epidemic. Add to that the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the prolonged sanctions that the United States and the West will impose on Russia, whatever the outcome, and that will mean a reduction in global supplies of Russia's main exports of oil, gas, barley, wheat and metals such as nickel and aluminum.There are so many things less, and the money has suddenly increased several times because of the epidemic to stimulate the economy, then you think about it, how can prices not go up?Speaking of prices, one of the main ways to control them is to raise interest rates. It is said that the interest rate hike can effectively control the price rise, because after the interest rate hike, people have less money to use, they will not buy so many things, and naturally the price of things will slowly fall. But if it would keep prices in check, why has the RBA been so reluctant to raise rates?We know that the US is going to raise interest rates soon and that Europe will follow. But the RBA said several times last year that the timetable was late 2023 to 2024. Even after the outbreak of the Ukla war and the surge in oil prices, the talk has changed to the possibility of raising interest rates in 2022, but it is still hoped that 2023 will start. So why is Governor Law of the Reserve Bank of Australia so insistent on delaying a rate hike?His view is probably the same as mine: the current rise in prices is due to a global shortage of goods, supply chain problems, and the reduction in the production of raw materials because of the war. Such factors cannot be changed even if interest rates are raised. Or, more precisely, one or two rate hikes won't work. For ordinary people, if a middle-class family has a mortgage of 1 million, the interest increase of 1% will increase the interest expense of 10,000 Australian dollars a year, which is about 800 dollars a month. Even a 0.25 per cent increase in interest costs an extra $200 a month. But could this increase in prices ultimately help families save $200 on the same thing on their daily expenses? It's almost impossible. What if 0.25% isn't enough and we raise rates to 1%? If you raise interest rates by 1%, you will have to spend 800 more interest money a month, and you will have less spare money to spend on consumption. Perhaps in the short term, sales of restaurants, shopping malls and cafes will fall, but again: will this save $800 a month in price control?In normal times, there is no doubt in my mind that I would support a rate hike. But at the moment, we all know that Australia has only been recovering from a strict lockdown for less than half a year. Large numbers of small and medium-sized businesses and restaurants have already closed. The reason why the Australian central bank governor Luo resisted the pressure to delay the interest rate hike was actually to minimize the reduction in people's disposable income. Try to get people to spend and help small businesses recover.Unfortunately, it will eventually be a matter of time before Australia raises interest rates, and when it does, it will be in succession. What is even more unfortunate is that the reasons behind the current rise in prices are different from the traditional ones, so it is difficult for prices to fall for some time even after the interest rate rise. This also means that for a long time in the future, we will face a double high era of high prices and high interest.High interest rates, you can't control high inflation, but if you don't have high interest rates, then inflation will be crazy, and if you do, it will still be high, but it won't be crazy. But even these high interest rates have become unbearable for people. For $10 tomatoes and $14 red and green peppers, I might as well have eaten meat.