GAIN Capital [One Week Outlook]: FOMC, Bank of Eng
  Source:FOREX.com 2022-12-14 11:48:26
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Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada continued their efforts to rein in inflation, both raising interest rates. This is an extremely busy week of the year, with at least six of the world's major central banks meeting to set interest rates, including the FOMC, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Us and UK CPI reports will be released before their respective rate-setting meetings. Will the data influence the decision to raise interest rates? In addition, other major economic data will be released next week, especially from China and the United Kingdom. Preliminary global PMIs for December will be released at the end of the week. As we enter the last two weeks of 2022, trading volumes and liquidity will begin to lower. Get ready for a volatile week!Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of CanadaThe Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, taking the cash rate to 3.10%. The RBA said that inflation will peak at around 8% this year, and may cool in 2023, and is expected to fall to around 3% in 2024. As a result, the RBA said inflation in Australia was too high and needed to raise interest rates further. However, the market believes that the RBA will not continue to raise interest rates until April 2023.Previously, the market had wavered between 25 basis points and 50 basis points for the Bank of Canada's decision to raise interest rates in November. Finally, last week, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 4.25 per cent, though it signaled that the increase would be the last. So while the market is also mindful of Labour market tightening and expects inflation to remain high, it is still interpreting the rate hike as dovish. The Bank of Canada's revised statement stressed that the central bank "will consider" whether further increases in the policy rate are needed to restore balance between supply and demand and achieve the inflation target; The previous version emphasized that further rate hikes "will be needed." Bank of Canada Governor Stephen McCollum will speak on Monday, so watch for further explanations of the changes in the statement.FOMCThe FOMC meets on Wednesday and the market is pricing in a 75 per cent chance of a 50 basis point rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. On November 30, in a speech at the Brookings Institution, Fed Chairman Powell repeatedly hinted that the Fed would only raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December, such as:The Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes as soon as the December FOMC meeting.Slowing down at this point is a good way to balance the risks.We don't want to tighten too much, so we're going to slow the pace of rate hikes for now.Less reliance on forecast data means better risk management, and lowering the rate hike at the current point is a good way to balance the risk of excessive rate hikes.Then we saw a strong labor market in November, with PPI exceeding expectations (but still below). All that remains is the US CPI data to be released on Tuesday: headline CPI is expected to fall from 7.7% year-on-year to 7.3%, and core CPI is expected to fall from 6.3% to 6.1%. If the actual number is in line with expectations, a 50 basis point rate hike is highly likely. However, the Fed will also publish a "dot plot" showing expectations for inflation, growth and interest rates, with the Fed's expectations for the target rate particularly attracting market attention.Bank of EnglandThe Bank of England meets on Thursday to set interest rates. The Bank of England raised rates by 75 basis points at its last meeting, taking them to 3.00%. The MPC said interest rates would have to continue to rise to meet its inflation target, but said the final level would be lower than markets expected. Committee members also pointed to the possibility of a recession in the UK over the next two years. Inflation, not least in line with the Bank of England's policy, rose from 10.1% in September to 11.1% in October. The November CPI will be released on Wednesday, the eve of the boe meeting. Headline CPI is expected to fall to 10.9%, while core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 6.6%. Before the decision, the Bank of England will also be watching other data this week, including October GDP and November unemployment benefit claims. If growth slows, the job market deteriorates and inflation continues to rise, will the Bank of England continue to raise interest rates?European Central BankThe European Central Bank also meets on Thursday to set interest rates. At its last meeting, the ECB raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.00%. The ECB noted that it will continue to raise interest rates because inflation is too high and continues to exceed expectations. November's preliminary CPI fell to 10 per cent year-on-year from 10.6 per cent in October. Market expectations fell only to 10.4% year on year. However, since their last meeting to discuss how to continue raising interest rates to ensure inflation does not stay high, ECB members have said they will fight inflation to the end, despite fears that the euro zone is heading into recession. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.Financial reportAs we enter the end of the fourth quarter, there are still earnings reports coming in. There are also some noteworthy companies, such as ORCL, ADBE, and CAN.Economic dataDue to the large number of central bank meetings this week (we are not even mentioning the SNB, Norges Bank or the Bank of Mexico), this week's economic data shock will take a back seat. As mentioned earlier, the U.K. will release jobless claims, GDP and inflation data ahead of the central bank meeting, and retail sales on Friday. The US will also release CPI, Philly Fed manufacturing PMI and retail sales this week. China is due to release a series of data on Thursday. On Friday, the preliminary global PMI report for December will be released. Other economic data released this week:WTI crude fell more than 11 percent last week and closed lower for six straight days. On Friday the price fell to a new year-to-date low of 70.10! After hitting a high of 129.42 on March 8, how many would expect negative year-to-year gains this year? Fears of recession and lack of demand led to lower oil prices in the second half of 2022. Will it continue to fall? The first support level will not occur until a further decline of more than $5, which is the December 20, 2021 lower line low of 66.15. Below that, the price could fall to the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021, and then the low of 61.76 on August 23, 2021! However, note that the RSI is on the edge of oversold territory, near 30.00. Maybe WTI could rally? The first resistance is at the Nov 28 low of 73.62. Above this, the next resistance level is 83.32, the high from November 30, and then the October 10 high of 93.62!With the FOMC, BOE and ECB central bank meetings and CPI data from the US and UK, this is certainly one of the busiest weeks of the year. Please manage your space accordingly. Also, if central banks are dovish, keep an eye out for the possibility of a year-end Christmas rally in equities. After this week, the market may start to slow as traders reduce positions ahead of the holidays.