Gain Group [Matt Weller column] : FOMC meeting out

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When will the Fed meet in December?The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday, December 14. After the meeting, the committee will release its monetary policy and Summary of Economic Projections at 2 p.m. Et, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell half an hour later.What to watch for at the Fed's December meeting?After four consecutive hikes of 75 basis points, most traders expect the Fed to lower its rate hike to 50 basis points this month. Since March, rates have risen by 375 basis points, the most aggressive pace in four decades.According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, 80 percent of fed funds futures traders see a 50 basis point rate hike, while about 20 percent of investors see another 75 basis points as a possibility.In addition, the Fed is expected to continue to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale every month, including the withdrawal of $60 billion of Treasury bonds and $35 billion of MBS.FOMC meeting outlookFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been able to surprise people lately. In a speech at the Brookings Institution on Nov. 30, he stressed that "as our policy rate gets closer to a level that is sufficient to reduce inflation, it makes sense to raise rates more slowly." Powell's speech came a week after a summary of the Fed's November rate-setting meeting showed the time for a "substantial majority" of Fed officials to reduce the pace of rate hikes was "imminent."It is clear that the Fed intends to reduce the rate of interest rate hikes, so the ultimate topic of the meeting will be around the "rate target", that is, the level of interest rates that the Fed plans to achieve before ending the rate hike cycle next year.Hence the importance of the Summary of Economic Forecasts, which contains the infamous "dot plot" of interest rate expectations. If the Fed's median rate forecast for next year rises to 5.25 per cent and above, it will signal a hawkish stance for market traders, even if the rate hike is only 50 basis points. On the other hand, if the median expectation still does not expect rates to end up above 5.00%, this is a signal to traders that the tightening cycle is over, and dovish signals will also put pressure on the dollar.The last thing to watch before tomorrow's fiscal extravaganza is, of course, Powell's press conference. Over the past month, Powell has frequently released softer and conciliatory language, almost explicitly overturning the market's initial policy interpretation, so Powell's press conference is not to be missed. Investors can also follow our Twitter account and news reports to keep abreast of the latest developments.
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