This week, the global market will welcome the Federal Reserve's November interest rate board decision, as well as the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will also release monetary policy decisions; Us non-farm production in October; OPEC+ meeting... Most important is the FOMC decision, as the Fed's November meeting is widely expected to kick off the tapering of its asset purchases. Powell said earlier that the taper could be announced as soon as the next meeting in November. Before the "silencing period" of the November meeting, Powell said in his last public remarks in October that "now is the time to taper, but not to raise rates!"

On inflation, Powell said that "tight supply and higher inflation are likely to persist for longer than previously expected and into next year," although he did note that the most likely scenario is that inflationary pressures weaken and job growth begins to resume. But "if we see inflation risks moving higher on a sustained basis, we will certainly use our tools." On Friday, local time, the US Commerce Department reported that the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.6% in September at an annual rate, unchanged from August's annual rate and still at the highest level in nearly 30 years.

With inflation still high, supply chain disruptions have not abated, which could further drive up prices, which in turn could influence the Fed's decision. Reuters reported that the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting this week, which is expected to provide clues on the path of future interest rate hikes in addition to clear guidance on reducing stimulus. On CME's FedWatch tool, traders have had more aggressive pricing of the Fed's interest rate recently. Futures contracts point to a 50 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates by at least 50 basis points in 2022 and again on a December basis.

The yield curve in the U.S. Treasury market has flattened sharply, with the 20-year yield trading above the 30-year multiple times on Thursday, and some analysts speculate the market may be pricing in a more aggressive Fed rate hike. Dan Belton, fixed income strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago, noted that "the market is anticipating a steeper path of rate hikes, which is flattening the entire yield curve, although not inverting."

It is worth noting that this week the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will also release their latest interest rate resolutions. Officials such as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey have previously expressed concern about price pressures and even given the clearest hint yet that the UK is likely to raise rates and will have to act to tackle rising inflation. While investors are leaning towards a rate rise, some economists see a greater risk of a hawkish boe making a mistake. Barclays said in its latest report that a November rate hike by the Bank of England can now be largely ruled out. If the UK's structural problems are to be addressed, the boe will raise rates by 15 basis points in December, followed by 25 basis points in February and May.

"This is going to be one of the first decisions that could impact the market," Bloomberg economist James McIntyre said of the RBA decision. Anz head of economics David Plank said the RBA would abandon its 0.1 percent yield control target for the April 2024 bond at its policy meeting next Tuesday. He expects that in next week's monetary policy statement, the RBA will forecast inflation of 2 per cent or higher for the entire period to the end of 2023.

As inflation rises and supply chain disruptions continue unabated, in addition to the Fed, the pace of tightening by other major central banks around the world is gradually accelerating, and the Bank of Canada has been unexpectedly hawkish on Wednesday (announcing the cessation of QE and bringing forward the guidance of interest rate hikes to the middle of next year). Goldman Sachs, a top investment bank, has sharply brought forward the timing of the Fed's rate hike in a recent report. Economist Jan Hatzius and his colleagues predict that the current situation will force the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time as early as next July, a full year earlier than previously expected. And it will raise rates again in November 2022, after which the central bank will raise rates twice a year! The main reason for the bank's new forecast is that they now expect inflation to be more stubborn than previously thought.